May 23, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
We are now in an unconfirmed warning phase in SPY, which happily did not have another Distribution day in volume. Furthermore, the slope of the 50 day moving average is up so we are calling this a weak unconfirmed warning phase. 132.66 is the 50 DMA to clear. 131.60 is S1-a drop beneath and anticipate it testing the April low at 129.50 next.
QQQ also broke beneath the 50 DMA which has a neutral slope. Volume today light.
IWM has 2 days under the 50 which confirms the warning phase except that too has a positive slope on the 50.
DIA looks the most promising with the 50 DMA close by, right above today's high. Furthermore, it held the 70 day exponential moving average. Therefore, watch DIA first and foremost as the best indicator on the next direction. Above today's high, a move at least to fill the gap left from today and a break of today's low, a more than likely test of 120.65, the swing low from April 18th.
QID could not close above the 70 day exponential moving average nor could SDS or TWM. With gaps higher today, the ultrashorts look like they could be basing so eyes on today's range.
FAZ-the recommended buy from Friday is the troublesome thorn in that without the financials in tow, any bounce in the market will be a sell opportunity until we see a shift in volume to the buy side.
Other ETFs:
SLV** Had an inside day and outperformed the market. Plus, the candle is a bullish engulfing pattern. As the 10 day moving average is right overhead at 34.25. That is a good point to buy against should SLV come in higher.
XRT**stopped right at the 50 DMA at 51.67.
SMH also stopped right at the 50 DMA and 70 EMA. Today's low also corresponds with 35.09, the swing low from April 20th. If the market firms, would focus on SLV, SMH and XRT.
FXE is a key as well. 140 pivotal area for the Euro. 139.90 is the 200 weekly moving average as well.
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