October 20, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Once again, volume (lack of) made buying breakouts and selling breakdowns treacherous especially after the inside day yesterday, which usually signals a directional day to follow. SPY had an accumulation day in volume although still well under the daily average. IWM as well right at the daily average. QQQ had a distribution day in volume, first one since early October. But, QQQ closed above the 200 DMA which keeps the accumulation phase intact. The 4 areas I consider for direction-slope of the 50 DMA, phase, volume and price all indicate that recent action points towards more upside. Now, with overbought conditions alleviated, if liquidity comes in, would be inclined to buy the index ETFs.
SPY: 123.50 a powerful level to clear.
DIA: 116.40 has to clear.
QQQ: 56.30 the 200 DMA. 57.00 pivotal
IWM: Through 71.35 looks good with the 160 EMA at 74.15.
ETFs:
XLK (Technology) Confirmed the phase change from Accumulation to Recovery, but held the 160 EMA. 25.50 now the area to clear.
SMH (Semiconductors) Over 30.20 good sign.
IBB (Biotechnology) Held 94.00 the 50 DMA support. Through 97.50 clears the 160 EMA.
XLF (Financials) Held the daily support at 12.45 perfectly. Over 13.05 clears last week's high and the 70 EMA.
OIH (Oil Service Holders) Tuesday night wrote 117 support, today's low. Now, over 121.05 looks better. A close above the 50 DMA will be first time since early August.
XLE (Energy) Closed over the 50 DMA 64.50 last week changing the phase to recovery. Now, appears to be consolidating. The 160 EMA next resistance 68.75.
XRT (Retail) If this is a bottom, could see big move to 58.00. Must continue to close above 50.00.
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