Is This the Bottom? 5 Signs It Could Be

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Will the market drink pulp fiction or the real juice?

It seems a hard case to make that the market has bottomed. Given the issues with the Granddad Russell 2000s and Granny Retail, best we can say right now is that the market’s free fall is waning.

The question I have is if that’s true and the worst is over for now, how much better will the market get? Can it attract fresh buyers? Heck, can it attract me?

Since January began, certain patterns seem to be emerging.

Although the TLTs or 20 Plus Year Treasury Bonds are strong, each time since last October, they took a trip close to 126, they have found resistance declining significantly.

TBT’s the ultrashort, are holding the August low of 40.31.

With a substantial low to work from after the 10-day calendar range for January is officially in place, what is holding, what is failing and what is pulling away?

Moreover, has the market stopped caring about oil?

Will the earnings season, starting with Netflix and continuing onto Google, Amazon and Facebook offer juice? The good kind. Freshly squeezed not Sunny-Delight, made with very little real fruit and lots of corn syrup and yellow # 5 and 6?

The Russell 2000 held last Friday’s low at 97.51.

Retail (XRT) matched EXACTLY Friday’s low. How’s that for special?

With Granny and Granddad working in tandem to try their best to hold the January Calendar Range low, seems fairly simple.

Wait for both of them to prove they can hold these lows and then, clear Tuesday’s high.

Netflix reported well. Up 11% at time of writing, that will help. NASDAQ also held the Friday low at 99.51, so that too is worth looking at over Tuesday’s high.

And as the sexy single aunt who comes to tease the rest of the family from time to time, I would definitely suggest waiting for Gramps and Grandma to be sufficiently seduced.

China of course, needs to hold. Forget about oil-watch Solar.

Finally, a move over 40.92 in TBTs and I would think a rally (and not the pulp fiction kind) is in the works. How much and for how long? Difficult to predict.

Sunny-D will give the market a sugar high without much nutrition. Orange Juice will keep the market sated longer. For me, it’s all about Granny, Gramps and investor appetite for risk vis-à-vis the treasury bonds.

S&P 500 (SPY) January Calendar range low (JCRL) 185.52. A move over today’s high much better if that low holds

Dow (DIA) 158.23 the JCRL. 157.35 the 200-week moving average. Held the JCRL so same directions

Nasdaq (QQQ) See above

XLF (Financials) 20.74 the 200 weekly moving average. Friday’s low 21.13

KRE (Regional Banks) Also held Friday’s low

SMH (Semiconductors) Like all the rest, wait for Tuesday’s high to clear before buying

IYT (Transportation) Ditto

IBB (Biotechnology) This made a new low last Thursday and then again Tuesday. However, it did close above it (273.47). I see no reason same rule should not apply-wait for above Tuesday’s high

XRT (Retail) see above

IYR (Real Estate) Held the lows and had 2 doji candles in a row. Watch 71.50

ITB (US Home Construction) Holding the 200-week moving average

GLD (Gold Trust) Confirmed phase change to recovery. Needs to hold 102.50 area

SLV (Silver) Tested that 50 DMA again-watching

GDX (Gold Miners) The move under 13 certainly brought more downside

USO (US Oil Fund) When will this ever end?

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Held Friday’s low but with a nasty looking candle. But I never turn my eyes away from here

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) A close under 124.95 Wednesday will be a decent topping pattern

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Maybe an island bottom-been her before so want to see it clear 31.60