Recovery, Meet The Accumulation Phase

April 13, 2016

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Two Shots of Whatever--Paarr-tayyy!

mdaily20160413

Maybe it’s spring fever. Maybe it’s tax loss carryforward ahead of Tax Day. Maybe it’s the sense of a never ending policy for low interest rates. Maybe it’s Jamie Dimon getting richer by the day. Maybe it’s the Fed donning beige with their “hint” of economic expansion. Maybe it’s denial that if the economy does indeed improve, Fed has to raise rates. Whatever IT is, today the Modern Family partied. They partied hard!

Some dazzling numbers: Prodigal Son Regional Banks-up over 3.5%. Party on dude. Granny Retail-up over 2.5%. Got her groove thing. Granddaddy Russell-up over 2%. Looks like someone got a B-12 shot. Transportation, the Chameleon sib-up over 2.5%. Pictured above.

Big Bro Biotechnology and Sister Semiconductors joined in as well posting better than decent gains. “Tonight's the night, let's live it up
I got my money, let's spend it up.” Black Eyed Peas

Now what?

How did commodities do? After all, the dollar strengthened. Depends where you look. Overall, oil, sugar, coffee gold, and gold miners declined. Yet steel, corn, soybeans and wheat all rallied.

Regardless, my screen lit up with the colors of unconfirmed phase changes. That makes tomorrow key for a second day confirmation.

Some Phase Changes

Twitter took its second trip above the 50 DMA (actually its third if you go back to early March.) The prior 2 times the phase confirmed. Then, the buying dried up. We will be looking for a move over 18.00.

Transportation (IYT) and Retail (XRT) cleared the 200 DMA again. Trans had volume. Although it could see some digestion now, over 140 looks good. Granny hobbled down to the 50 DMA only to toss away her cane and hurdle back over the 200 DMA. 5 days now of excellent volume, a confirmation over 45.00 is important to her future.

Solar Energy (TAN), I’ve been waiting for you as patiently as a lamp without oil. Now in an unconfirmed Recovery Phase, I’ll definitely watch for a second close over 23.05.

Since April 1^st, the highest closing price in SPY was 206.92. After busting out of the classic consolidation, the S&P 500 closed today at 208. Big volume however, continues to evade the rally.

Not everyone gained.

Who needs coffee and sugar at a party when you can have cocktails with bean dip on wheat crackers? Coffee futures changed to a bearish phase (needs confirmation.) Sugar, although I would still look for a new buy opportunity, closed in a warning phase.

Nonetheless, party crashers were EVERYWHERE. And you could hear them singing, “Steady, child, don't get lost in your worried mind. Doesn't matter what it costs, matters what you find. Yeah, forget all of the pressure from all your deadlines. Hey, hey, just celebrate tonight!”

S&P 500 (SPY) 207.14 now point to hold. December high before I day say it-the crash-211.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 110.50 now should hold112.51is a gap fill point with 112.62 the 200 DMA. Resistance areas

Dow (DIA) 177.88 the point to hold. 179.04 the last high in December. Today’s high 179.02

Nasdaq (QQQ) 110 now number to hold. Pretty far from its gap up at 111.84.

XLF (Financials) 22.50 now support

KRE (Regional Banks) A weekly close above 38.80 would be very prodigal

SMH (Semiconductors) 55.65 area the point to continue from. December high 56.99

IYT (Transportation) 140.02 key support.

IBB (Biotechnology) 279.50 pivotal. 288.50 point to clear

XRT (Retail) 45.05 now support area to hold

IYR (Real Estate) New high close for year

ITB (US Home Construction) Nice bust out over the consolidation