October 6, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Unconfirmed phase change in QQQ to recovery, volume patterns all around still uninspiring, slope on 50 DMA more negative, all but SPY back in channel, price-in middle of range from August low to August high. Yet bears have been squeezed and lots of stocks have healthy looking charts after holding 80 month lows even after the last dump.
SPY: If holds above 114.40, the 50 DMA at 118.25 and the 80 monthly 122.50.
DIA: Cleared the 80 monthly with today's close. 112.46 the 50 DMA and must hold 109.30 to hold recent up move then the 200 weekly 106.25.
QQQ: Still far from the long term moving averages. 56.00 next resistance, 53.50 support to hold.
IWM: Like SPY has overhead at the 80 monthly MA at 68.50 yet above the 200 weekly at 65.20. The midcaps have to stay in the party.
ETFs:
GLD Still range bound. 162-155
XLK (Technology) Looking at top of recent range 25.29 and the 200 DMA 29.50 if 24.00 holds.
SMH (Semiconductors) Cleared 28.00 the 50 DMA, but not the 80 month at 28.50. Next hurdle now for a real trend change and not just a good bear rally.
IBB (Biotechnology) On last run, tested the 200 DMA at 99.50.
XLE (Energy) Cleared the 80 month not the 200 weekly moving average. 60.00 now pivotal.
OIH* (Oil Service Holders) Longer term trend weaker than XLE since still far from the 80 monthly and 200 weekly MA. If market rolls over, this is one to look to short.
IYR (Real Estate) Has potential to see 60.00 provided recent lows hold.
XLF (Financial) If holds 11.80 on the way to 12.50. Another area to look at for short if market rolls over.
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