November 29, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
There is nothing surprising about digestion at these levels after a huge move down followed by a sizeable gap up. Energy, Biotechnology and Retail prevailed while Financials and Semiconductors dragged. Divergence in sectors and technicals.
SPY: There is an island bottom after 2 days confirm. Also 2 doji days and a failure to clear the 50 DMA keeping the bear phase alive. All this spells indecision. Question is, what will be decided-up or down and by when?
QQQ: Tried but could not fill the gap to 55.30. Phase remains bearish. 53.80 area support and a move over 55.30 encouraging. Of course, AAPL clearing 379 would help a lot, but also see the possibility of the second time at the 200 DMA failing.
IWM: A monthly close under 68.75 looks pretty negative. A daily close over 70.05 a sign of relief.
ETFs:
GLD Dull action last 2 days while it sits above the negatively sloped 50 DMA and beneath the adaptive moving average. Watching the range 165.50 to 167.50 to break in either direction.
XRT (Retail) 50.75 the 200 DMA to penetrate. 49.40 important to hold or we could consider this a rally into major overhead resistance.
SMH (Semiconductors) 28.50 the 80 monthly moving average. Will watch to see if semis can keep the long term trend intact.
XLF* (Financials) Held 11.97 with an inside day. Would be first sector to watch for the island bottom or failure in its current bear phase.
XLE (Energy) Confirmed island bottom in a recovery phase. But not enough to keep the whole market going. Under 66.13 back to bear phase. Still lots to clear on upside.
IBB (Biotechnology) First one to test and now fail the 200 DMA. 99.50 resistance and 97.00 support.
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