November 28, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Hopefully shorts did not have a Tryptophan high from the turkey leftovers coming into today. After all, a 5% drop in a week-you got to expect a rally. Also, 7 is a magic number up or down in a row; statically, the 8th day reverses.
SPY: Island bottom? Need a second close above the gap. Volume-below average but better than the prior 5 trading days. Phase-bearish. 118.52 now key to hold to support a possible island bottom. A close above 120.72 changes phase to an unconfirmed recovery.
QQQ: Could not fill the gap from 54.73 to 55.30, but had a last minute run to close near the high of the day. Volume good, but not as strong a pattern as in the SPY. No island UNLESS it gaps above 54.79 and does not fill it.
IWM: 70.06 the overhead resistance to watch. Then looking at 71.00. Had a narrow range day which considering the huge gap higher open is worth noting. On the flip side, like to see 69.00 hold.
ETFs:
GLD 165-167 now an area of resistance which if clears, should bring in some long interest. Otherwise, 155 was the early fall support.
SLV (Silver) Narrowest range in 165 days. Back over 32.00 and the negative bias begins to turn positive.
XRT (Retail) The 200 DMA to penetrate. 49.40 important to hold or we could consider this a rally into major overhead resistance.
SMH (Semiconductors) 28.50 the monthly moving average. Month ends soon-will watch to see if semis can keep the long term trend intact. 30.75 resistance to clear
XLF (Financials) Held 11.97 with today's low 12.00 which means we can look at a possible island bottom if gap is not filled. 12.37 next resistance then 12.60.
XLE* (Energy) Also a possible island bottom and resting on the 50 DMA which keeps this group compelling.
IBB (Biotechnology) First one to near the 200 DMA. I would not discount this group to lead, but we will need to see the other ones follow. For now, 99.50 resistance and 97.00 support.
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