December 20, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
After yesterdays' selloff, even on the heels of today's rally, we can put the island bottom to bed. We can also put the oversold condition to bed. But, we do now have a return to an unconfirmed recovery phase in S & P 500 (SPY) and Midcaps (IWM). NASDQ (QQQ) does not. Retail (XRT) is the one ETF that is in a truly Bullish Phase. IYT (Transportation) and IYR (Real Estate) both look like they want to tackle the 200 DMA which would be a promising shift in the market. SMH (Semiconductors) look like the new wildcard with the possible bottoming formation, yet continuing bear phase. Most importantly, is that the indexes are in the middle yet approaching the upper end, of a nearly 3-month trading range. Continues to be a market of divergence which makes looking at sectors and groups individually the clearest strategy in the current mud pie.
ETFs:
GLD 157.45 the 200 DMA now resistance as it worked off the oversold condition.
XLF (Financials) Neutral sloping 50 DMA at 12.86 which if clears is encouraging; otherwise, 12.21 next support, yesterday's low.
IYT (Transportation) 89.75 the 200 DMA. 85.60 must hold.
IYR (Real Estate) 57.30 the 200 DMA. 54.80 must hold.
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