Tariffs, OPEC+ and WTI Crude Oil

July 7, 2025

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Announcement:

I’m now live on

Every day, I break down the market. Now you can follow the trades, setups, and rotations I’m tracking in real time. You will also be able to chat 1:1 with me. Use code Mish30 for 30% off your access.

Last week I covered solar energy.

I still say that all energy hands will be needed on deck to support the demands of AI, not to mention the power grid in the US and globally.

Blackrock put out their predictions for the second half of 2025.

2 predictions stood out to me

Utilities rising
Energy demands for AI rising

While I do not believe it takes a genius to figure that out, I do nonetheless, like when I am aligned with a company like Blackrock.

Today, we go back to talking about crude oil.

We learned that OPEC+ decided to raise its output target by 548,000 barrels a day.

Yet, once again, the oil market shrugged off the bearish news.

As I always say, “Price dictates the narrative,” what is the narrative with oil just under $68 (the resistance to clear).

Goldman Sachs put out a prediction that oil will drop to $60. However, we already know that shale producers will face tighter margins with lower prices.

We also know that supply and demand rules in commodities trading.

Right now, the market is saying that despite rising supply, the demand still outweighs it.

Will this last?

Should oil hold over $68, not only does that clear recent resistance, but it also shows that the bullish momentum on real motion means that the price could work itself higher.

On the chart of USO, the January calendar range (soon to reset in July), clears and it is possible that we see $85 again.

The last time oil set up, it was before the Israel and Iran crisis.

This time there is news that Houthi attacks on commercial shipping resume, stoking fresh geopolitical risk.

Therefore, remember that analysts crunch the numbers and do not account for the price charts.

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice. 

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

NEW! Join Mish on Slice-she will post active trades, be available for live chats, and teach the methodology she uses for finding trades in all asset classes!

-----Get your copy of
Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth

Grow Your Wealth Today and Plant Your Money Tree!