The Power of the 50-Daily Moving Average in Energy ETFs

September 23, 2025

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

While nuclear, coal, solar, and hydrogen power stocks and ETFs have done well,

Oil and gas, our more traditional and somewhat abundant resources traded through various stocks and ETFs, have not done that well.

Could that change?

I am now quoted for “All energy hands on deck,” so it behooves me how cheap both oil and gas are on the futures exchanges.

How will we know when that changes?

The first chart is of the ETF USO.

What is so important is that the price, since the end of August, has not had 2 consecutive closes over the 50-DMA (blue line).

We like to use this confirmation, and this is a fine example of why.

2-day closes avoid whipsaws. A single-day close above the 50-DMA could just be noise, a short squeeze, or end-of-day buying.

Two closes above show buyers are committed, not just testing resistance.

This increases the probability that the trend shift is sustainable.

Psychologically, it also keeps traders disciplined—waiting for proof instead of reacting emotionally to one big day.

Today, USO closed back over the 50-DMA.

That means the closing price on the 24th is huge.

Confirmation would mean that the trend shift this time could be sustainable.

The UNG chart (natural gas ETF) has a different use of the 50-DMA.

It has almost acted like a trendline of resistance.

Since June 2025, UNG has not closed above the 50-DMA.

At the last rally on September 17th, the price of UNG ran right up to the 50-DMA.

But did not clear it.

That makes it simple really.

Want to know if oil has shifted bullish?

Wait for 2 consecutive closes over the 50-DMA.

Want to know if natural gas has bottomed out?

Wait for 2 consecutive closes over the 50-DMA.

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice. 

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