Timing an Investment in a Hot IPO Gone South

September 4, 2025

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

On June 5, 2025, Circle Internet Group INC had its IPO.

The price opened at $69.00 per share.

Within the next few days, the price rose to $150 and then peaked on June 23rd at $298.99 a share!

I have watched a lot of IPOs, and I have yet to trade one until we have history.

Over 3 months in, I can share some chart patterns, plus tell you why I am interested in following this company.

Circle is an open Layer-1 blockchain purpose-built for stablecoin finance. (Arc).

This is like Visa and PayPal each deciding to build their own version of Ethereum.

Arc uses USDC (a $1.00 stablecoin) to pay transaction fees instead of a volatile crypto token. That means fees are low, predictable, dollar denominated.

It’s an ambitious attempt to create the ideal chain for global payments and finance.

This new network aims to provide a reliable, cost-effective, and high-performance infrastructure for global payments and financial transactions.

Why is this a good thing?

Because this will be a new internet financial system that makes money moving around the world as seamless as sending an email.

It is a peer-to-peer system that allows transactions with confidence 24/7.

In short, Circle empowers businesses to use cryptocurrency and public blockchains for payments and commerce worldwide, aiming to make the process more efficient. 

So why is the stock’s price down from the highs so much?

Circle still posted a net loss of $482 million in the second quarter, largely due to costs associated with the IPO.

Several analysts have downgraded CRCL stock, citing concerns about high valuation, increasing competition, and regulatory risks in the digital finance sector.

This is why I love charts.

What does the price say from here?

The stock is down dramatically which could mean the company cannot survive (been in business since 2013).

However, that breakout after the IPO at $100 looks compelling and not too far away.

I am watching for a legitimate reversal pattern.

That means I want to see

After a new 60+ day low like the ones we have been seeing since Monday, a sharp reversal with volume.
A confirmation the next day (price takes out the prior day’s high and keeps going, also with volume).

Now if this drops to $100 I might take a nibble.

Otherwise, I will watch for the reversal pattern, especially if I know my risk parameters.

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice. 

Limited offer.

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