May 26, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
We have had some really good picks lately: CMG, AMZN, ACOM, COH, ANF, DNDN, POT as well as tracking the ETF's that were ready to breakout such as XRT, IYR and even SMH, FXI and XLF. If you would like to see a paper trail of any of these trades please email us and we would be happy to oblige.
SPY posted the second accumulation day in a row closing back above the 50 day moving average at 132.91. Today's high was 133.24 which leaves just a tiny bit left of the gap to 133.36 or the low from May 20. In order for a phase change to confirm, we will need a second close above the 50 day moving average. And since tomorrow is Friday ahead of the long weekend, I would not
anticipate strong volume nor at this point is it as big a factor as it was a couple of days ago.
QQQ did not have its second day of accumulation in volume nor could it get back up to the 50 day moving average at 57.43. That also leaves a gap to fill up to 57.76. However, the slope is positive making the warning phase weak. But again, in anticipation of the long weekend, not expecting tremendous volume
and it could be a quiet day.
IWM-first I must make a correction and clarify that yesterday was not an accumulation day in volume nor was today. Therefore, although it touched the 50 day moving average and had much better price action than the other two indexes with an upward sloping 50 day moving average indicating a weak morning phase, volume must begin to come into this index along with continued positive price action.
DIA had an accumulation day in volume today but was unable to get above the 50 day moving average at 124.05. This also has a gap to fill up to 124.85. What would be very interesting is if this gapped above today's high 124.17, did not fill the gap and then continued higher. That would actually leave the potential for a strong bottoming formation. I'm not predicting this to happen, merely pointing out that that it is one of the possibilities. The other possibility is that it doesn't do very much ahead of the holiday or it actually closes lower but leaves the slope of the 50 day moving average positive thereby closing this week in a tepid warning phase.
SMH confirmed its phase change back to bullish. I went home long NVLS, one of the semiconductors but will be watching the ETF carefully for follow-through above today's high. Has a gap to fill up to 35.70 and the adaptive moving average is at 35.80.
It was encouraging today to see follow-through in XLE and OIH both of which have upward sloping 50 day moving averages. Both of which also have overhead resistance at the 50 day moving averages. Those will be the next critical levels to watch.
GLD**this will be a focus tomorrow.
FXE continues to hold 140. I still see that as an important area for the Euro which of course also impacts many of the commodity related ETF's and stocks.
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