May 26, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Over the weekend, I asked the question “Are Russell’s a Rolling Stone?” The basis for that query stemmed from how long it has taken for them to prove they could clear the April highs let alone continue the upward trend.
I further asked, “If IWM Fails the (Modern) Family, What Happens?” After all, the Retail (XRT) struggled to yet could not regain a bullish status all last week. Transportation (IYT) broke 151.25, the weekly moving average, pretty much right out of the gate on Tuesday, and ended the session in an unconfirmed bearish phase.
However, Semiconductors (SMH) and Biotechnology (IBB) held up very well, both maintaining their bullish phases and barely falling from recent highs.
Regional Banks (KRE) respected 41.50, the near-term support and managed to outperform the market.
The Modern Family and the interplay among the 6 relatives continues to fascinate me. It’s as if every time the group decides to take a drive all together, once the minivan shows up, they pile in and then, just before the van goes into drive, at least one of the family pushes on the door handle and falls to the curb.
Nonetheless, since the majority of the family keeps seatbelts fastened, the plan for a fun trip to the mountains stays alive.
Henceforth, while we wait for everyone to finally take a seat and stay put, the range persists. Replace the minivan with a pasture. The family with sheep, the weaker members as sheep sheared, the stronger ones as sheep digesting and in that vein, any selloff a buy opportunity as so far, the strong survives!
S&P 500 (SPY) After 2 inside days last week, it reconciled to the downside, but held the 50 DMA. Over 212 looks better and under 209.50, vacation plans for the family on hold.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 122.00 near term support and over 124.25 back in the driver’s seat
Dow (DIA) Held the 50 DMA with 182 now resistance to clear
Nasdaq (QQQ) Could be forming a double top but for now, seems more like a correction. 108 good support to hold up
XLF (Financials) 24.40 the 50 DMA
KRE (Regional Banks) We are seeing the result of a mini blow off top last week. Now, 41.35 the 50 DMA important support and over 42.25 much better again
SMH (Semiconductors) Held the fast moving average. Over 58.00 definitely the best sign
IYT (Transportation) There’s a gap to 147.39 from October 2014 that could get filled. Weekly moving averages are weighted with a Friday close. So that 151.25 not confirmed unless it cannot clear
IBB (Biotechnology) 353 the 50 DMA to hold
XRT (Retail) Seems like an inverse hammer doji can also translate to a weak sell off on low volume
GLD (Gold Trust) Gapped back under the 50 DMA. Rather see what Silver does now on the 50 DMA.
USO (US Oil Fund) Now that it broke 20, looking to see what happens at 19, the 50 DMA
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) As much as I hate to write this, does look like a giant bear flag can be forming
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Held the 50 DMA
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Like to see what happens at 41.80
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 124 the 200 DMA and 120 support
UUP (Dollar Bull) Cleared the 50 DMA at 25.50
EEM (Emerging Markets) Has to hold 42.00
SGG (Sugar) One ray of hope, if this holds the March lows
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