December 15, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Tom Waits-Step Right Up
The week seemingly seals a few deals. First, the market is tired. I imagine, traders are tired too.
Although all indices remain in bullish phases, the weekly prices ended either near the lows- i.e. Russell 2000s, the Dow, and S&P 500, or on new weekly lows, as did NASDAQ. Second, with the coming Federal Reserve 2-day meeting, the volume already pretty meager, should get even more so until some (if any) tangible direction on rates and tapering is offered.
Third, DIA and SPY ended on the lows of the week with inside days. Therefore, as following the range break after an inside day makes sense, one can assume if any volume does come in, it will be more to the downside. One thing for sure, smart money has evened up.
Scalpers are looking for the hot tickets-hot until they turn cold. And by week’s end, after a sterling move, Tesla, Google, turned cold. Twitter is still hot, along with Facebook-but scalpers only please. Risk at these levels is incalculable.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day with the 50 DMA even more attractive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Crossed back over the 50 DMA which is the most promising thing I see. If it opens lower, don’t fight it
Dow (DIA) Inside day, also with the 50 DMA nearby unless it really surprises and gets over 158 right out of the gate and stays there
Nasdaq (QQQ) 84.00 in the wings. However, longer term, still in its runaway gap range
XLF (Financials) Volume did come in here creating an accumulation day. However, has to cross the fast moving average to get interesting
SMH (Semiconductors) Touched and held the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) Touched the 50 DMA but not exactly a bounce. Needs to get going early on Monday or vulnerable
IYT (Transportation) 128 pivotal
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding 213 where the run started from-now support to hold
IYR (Real Estate) 61.90 needs to hold
XHB (Homebuilders) Dancing on the 50 DMA
GLD Rejected 122 but holding the reversal pattern from 12/03. 118.00 major area to hold for that reversal pattern otherwise, not pretty
USO (US Oil Fund) Retreated from the resistance which makes 34.50 important
OIH (Oil Services) 2 inside days-big eyes here
EWW (Mexico) 67.55 and above interesting for a possible phase change over the 200 DMA
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