Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 16, 2026

Geoff Bysshe | September 16, 2026

TITLE: Oil-Driven Markets, FOMC Volatility, And Opening Range Reversals Across Stocks And Bonds (09-16-2026)

VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff analyzed how crude oil, bonds, and equities interacted during the prior session, emphasizing that a large oil move—roughly 2% or more—can strongly influence stocks, particularly when TLT moves in the expected opposite direction. He explained how SPY, QQQ, SMH, and USO revealed relative strength, weakness, and opening-range reversal opportunities, while warning that accelerating oil strength could suppress stock rebounds. Geoff then assessed the compressed futures setup ahead of the FOMC announcement, highlighting support near key moving averages, SMH’s range, and the importance of waiting for confirmation after the press conference. His watchlist included IBB, XBI, GDX, XLV, TLT, IYT, QNT, Google, AMD, Intel, Apple, and other sector leaders, with emphasis on support, momentum, relative performance, volume, and clearly defined stops. Geoff advised reducing risk or allowing wider stops through Fed volatility and treating the following day as more informative than the initial reaction.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] Oil, Bonds, And Stock Correlations: Geoff explains how USO, TLT, SPY, QQQ, and SMH interacted during the prior session, showing why a large crude move can pressure stocks and why intermarket confirmation matters for directional decisions.
  2. [00:25:11] Futures Setup Before The Fed: Geoff reviews compressed futures, support near the 50- and 100-day averages, SMH’s range, and the uncertainty surrounding the FOMC announcement, stressing that the initial news reaction may not establish the true trend.
  3. [00:40:57] Sector Support And Fed Sensitivity: Geoff evaluates gold, GDX, biotech, IBB, XBI, XLV, TLT, and other sectors, separating constructive support patterns from weaker setups and identifying where stops or confirmation could make a trade actionable.
  4. [01:06:52] Scanning For Relative Strength: Geoff demonstrates scans for lower-priced and highly ranked stocks that advanced during a down market day, using price, volume, technical structure, and fundamental questions to narrow the watchlist.
  5. [01:20:45] Technology And Security Watchlist: Geoff reviews security names and technology leaders including Bloom, Visa, AMD, Intel, Apple, NVIDIA, and related semiconductor stocks, favoring pullbacks, breakouts with manageable risk, and improving momentum over extended entries.
  6. [01:33:15] Managing Risk Through Fed Volatility: Geoff outlines a three-stage framework for Fed Day—announcement, press conference, and the following session—and recommends patience, lighter exposure, or wider stops while waiting for a more reliable post-news trend.

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