Market Analysis for Trading on 1/11/2018

Mish Schneider | January 10, 2018

***Time to check your earnings dates

From 2017:

All have 2 profit targets, tail left except BB JD CNQ-1 profit target reached and none reached in-IPI SLV -all no loss stops

DBC: ATR .17 Long 15.40 Trailing stop 15.99

Blackberry BB ATR: .21. Long at 10.97 stop no loss. First profit target: 12.87 Reached! 2nd Profit Target: 14.94 for another 1/2

Intrepid Potash IPI: ATR: .26 Long at 4.01 No Loss Stop. First Profit Target for ½: 5.37

CMC: ATR .49 Long at 19.50. RAISE Trailing stop: 22.97

Canadian Natural Resources CNQ: ATR .84. Triggered-long around 34.40. No stop loss now First target sold ½ 36.27 and Second target: 37.59

Billiton Ltd BHP ATR: .57 Long from 42.70. Trailing stop: 44.44

Silver SLV ATR: .23 Long 15.41 Raise Stop: 15.41 First target: 15.81 to 16.70 (Swing) depending on risk

***JD Inc. ATR: 1.21 Long at 41.92 ***Raise Stop: 42.44 First Target: 46.94 (We took some at 46.74)

Phase Changes This Week-

Xerox XRX ATR .36. Closed over 30.00-cleared the weekly and daily moving averages. Risk then under 29.00-In play

Ultrashort Treasury Long Bonds-TBT ATR: .49 Unconfirmed Recovery Phase. Needs second close then risk choice-under 34.12 or under 33.00.

3D Printing ETF: PRNT ATR: .32 Confirmed Bullish Phase-risk to under 24.14

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) ATR: 1.14 Unconfirmed phase change to Bullish. Needs another close over 68.23 and tight risk under 67.50-Confirmed and in play

New:

FireEye FEYE ATR: .40-If already in, a new unconfirmed accumulation phase. If not in, needs to confirm with a close over 14.88 then tight risk under 14.14.

Limbach Holdings Inc ALM ATR: .46 Unconfirmed Bullish phase. Needs second close over 13.30 then risk is to under 13.00

If you have questions, please ask me on @marketminute my twitter account

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The Market Came In Like A Lion But…

The uncertainty of this administration’s’ policies have come home to roost once again.

I purposely use the word “roost” as we are nearing the final month of the Year of the Fire Rooster.

In line with the astrological predictions, it has been a banner time.

However, will those banner times continue?

Today, Canada came out with a statement that they are convinced Trump will announce withdrawal from NAFTA.

On top of that, China is reportedly thinking of halting the US Treasury purchases. This move, would be in retaliation for any added tariffs Trump might impose on Chinese goods.

Companies that have benefitted from NAFTA, General Motors, Ford and countries such as Mexico and Canada took a hit after the Canadian supposition came out.

Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donahue warns that a pullout from NAFTA would mean absolute destruction for the economy.

Trump is considered a “wild card”, which is a bizarre yet accurate way to describe this President.

Nonetheless, we got an Earth Dog coming ‘round the corner.

Have I mentioned that Trump is born the Year of the Dog?

The macro picture didn’t really change very much today.

Until the Dow breaks 25,000, any correction is most likely healthy.

The index that would have the most volatility and vulnerability to any disrupting changes in economic policy either her or abroad is the Russell 2000 (IWM.)

Today, IWM closed red after failing to hold new all-time highs yesterday.

However, the market has been here before. In December, IWM made a new high and then sold off for 5 days.

Just as the Bears became emboldened, IWM turned and roared to another new all-time high. Then, it sold off for another 8 days.

Then, the last two weeks, IWM roared back again.

This proves the point of its volatility and vulnerability, but hardly proves the market top. At least not yet.

Of course, the Modern Family remains the best “go to.”

Regional Banks, Biotechnology, and Retail all posted gains.

Transportation (IYT) hit $200 (as predicted) and retreated. Since trains, planes and automobiles all live in this sector, eliminating NAFTA would indeed have a negative impact here.

Which in turn, would also negatively impact the market.

To simplify your watchdog eye, focus on IYT.

Lately, I have written about the trend I am watching for-a lower dollar, higher rates, rising inflation and an overheated economy.

I stick to that prediction for now. However, never assume anything-which is the lesson of 2017. Just follow the price.

S&P 500 (SPY) Although this closed slightly under yesterday’s low, the lack of volatility or fear dissuades me from reading too much into it. Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) Held the fast-moving average so definitely not reading to much into this yet either. Under 153.50 would be more concerning.

Dow (DIA) Nothing concerning here at this point

Nasdaq (QQQ) This reduced its overbought readings and barely budged. Bears-nope-not yet

KRE (Regional Banks) Took out 60 and flew. Now pivotal. Closed right on the old high 61.26 after making a new one intraday

SMH (Semiconductors) 101 pivotal support

IYT (Transportation) 195 pivotal support-after this hit 200 today

IBB (Biotechnology) 109 pivotal and 107.50 key support. Through 112 could see 113.74-114

XRT (Retail) Retook 46 on a closing level-

IYR (Real Estate) Broke 78. 76.60 the big underlying support

XLV (Healthcare) Inside day

GLD (Gold Trust) Filled the gap to 125.41 so appears this still looks good. Like risk to 123.25-124

SLV (Silver) 16.27 the 200-week MA. 15.85 support

XME (S&P Metals and Mining) Looks really good

USO (US Oil Fund) Should hold 12 now

TAN (Solar Energy) This will probably head to 30 this year. 25.29 support

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Confirmed Distribution Phase -like the dip in TBT so if clears 35.75 looks better

UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.06 pivotal

FXI (China) Consolidating near the highs

ILF (Latin America) If moves closer to 35, like for a tight risk-got to 35.40 today

LIT (Lithium) 39.50 support

PRNT (3D Printing) Through 26 should be great

WEAT (Teucrium Wheat Fund) Unconfirmed recovery phase-first time since July

DBA (PwrShs DB Ag Fd) Like better over 19.00

DBC (DB Commodity Idx Tracking Fund) Bullish