Market Analysis for Trading on 2/2/2018

Mish Schneider | February 1, 2018

*** Watch today’s video

***Earnings next 2 weeks: FEYE 2/8 after market, GRPN 2/14 before open, GGP 2/7 before open, GLPI 2/8 before open, OI 2/6 after market, AEM 2/14 after hours, LMB 2/13 after hours

Basic Swing Trading Rules-please print and keep

Once Phase Change is confirmed

Risk 1-2 ATRs

Go to no loss after you get 2 ATRs

Take off 1/3-1/2 at 3-4 ATRs.

Then take off another 1/3-1/2 at 5-6 ATRs

Begin trailing the stop on the tail using a 10 DMA if applicable or a 50 DMA and you can also use a 30 min OR breakdown with a rolldown to an S point-or chart point

**I never use even numbers to place stops or for entries. For example, if the level is 38.00 for a stop or an entry-I will put in the stop at 37.97 or 37.94 and the entry at 38.04 or 38.07

Remember to use a 2 to 1 ratio risk reward. So if risk 1.00 expect to make at least 2.00

2017:

All have 2 profit targets, tail left except BB and none reached in-SLV -all no loss stops-

DBC: ATR .17 Long 15.40 RAISE-Trailing stop 16.44

Blackberry BB ATR: .21. Long at 10.97 Trailing Stop: 11.44 First profit target: 12.87 Reached! 2nd Profit Target: 14.94 for another 1/2

***CMC: ATR .49 Long at 19.50. Lower Trailing stop: 22.19

Billiton Ltd BHP ATR: .57 Long from 42.70. LOWERED Trailing stop: 45.24

JD Inc. ATR: 1.21 Long at 41.92 First Target: 46.94 reached second profit target at 48.74 Trailing Stop: 44.94

2018

2nd target reached! Sold another ½ at 35.00. Tail left Xerox XRX ATR .36. Long at 30.00 Raise trailing stop: 31.97 -Target reached at 32.00 Target 2: 33.50

Ultrashort Treasury Long Bonds-TBT ATR: .49 In from around 34.50 so now no loss stop

3D Printing ETF: PRNT ATR: .32 Long at 25.50 Sold ½ at 26.75 ***Lower stop a tad to 24.94.-next target: 27.84

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) ATR: 1.14 Long from 70 area. Reached target 1 at 73.50 and target 2 at 75.50 ***Raise stop now to trailing-74.44

NFLX (Long at 199) Took 2 profit targets Raise trailing stop to 257.44

***FireEye FEYE ATR: .40- Long at 15.00 area. Lower Sell stop: 14.44 Target 1: 16.59

Limbach Holdings Inc LMB ATR: .46 Long around 13.30 No loss stop-sold ½ at 14.00, next target 14.97

Twitter TWTR ATR: .85. Long at 22.85 with the opening range. Got 2 ATRs now use no loss stop: 22.85 First Target reached!: 25.94 Second Target: 29.47

Groupon GRPN ATR: .17 Long ½ position at 5.42 Risk to 4.94. I would consider an add if clears 6.00-then we can see 9.00 if the market holds up.

GGP Inc GGP: ATR: .32 Long at 23.50 area and risk is below 22.45 to give it room. Still in if took lower risk and used the 30-minute opening range.  First profit target for ½: 25.45

Agnico Eagle Mines AEM: ATR: .95 Long at 48-48.50 risk now is around 46-47 First Target: 50-50.44-if not in, consider over 47.50 with risk under 46.00

Silver SLV ATR: .23 Long 15.41 No loss stop: 15.41 First target: 15.81 to 16.70 (Swing) depending on risk-***if added too, raise stop to 15.74 with new target around 17.24

***No new trades until we get through the crazy week of SOTU, FED meeting, earnings, etc.

***New: (I use the breakout over the 30 minute opening range for entry number-if you bought at a different price , adjust target accordingly.

Owens Illinois: OI: ATR: .43 Long around 23.25. Risk is under 22.50. First target for ½: 24.60

Gaming Leisure and Property GLPI ATR: .40- Long from 36.80. Risk 33.77. First target for 1/2: 38.74

New:

Ciena CIEN: ATR: .47. Unconfirmed phase change to recovery. If holds 21.60 and clears 22.00, good risk to under 21.14.

If you have questions, please ask me on @marketminute my twitter account

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A Market with Fabulous Superlatives

Recently, we went to see Marty Stuart and His Fabulous Superlatives in concert.

We can surely use fabulous superlatives to describe how much fun we had.

Similarly, the market engenders some fabulous superlatives.

A superlative is an adjective to describe something of the highest quality or degree.

Expressions like the “best,” “greatest,” “highest”, etc., have become hackneyed phrases to describe the market action.

In fact, add the suffix “est” to just about any word and you can find a parallel to describe the resilient market.

Resilientest? Actually, you can add “est” to a lot of words but not all. Most resilient works the “best.”

In one of Marty Stuart’s songs, “Mirrors Don’t Lie,” he says, “So don't be lookin' if you can't stand to see.”

I choose this song, because I see the resiliency of the market waning.

Therefore, I be lookin’ cause I can stand to see.

We should all be lookin’-cause nothing lasts forever.

What are the “most” troubling signs to watch for?

My number one concern is the rising rates and falling dollar. This isn’t news if you read my Daily. I’ve been concerned for months.

Secondly, the tax cuts in an economy that is overheated-have you heard that the Atlanta Fed thinks first quarter GDP will be 5.1%?

Then there’s the rising debt. Add to that, wages that have barely budged as well as the low level of money employers are spending on benefits for workers.

My next major concern? The falling dollar and rising global demand could spark inflation. That will put Chair Powell in a tough if not the-inject superlative-toughest spot.

Stagflation-really crappy situation for the Fed should it occur.

Technically I have some issues. For starters, the topping reversal pattern in the indices and gaps that were left from the highs.

The break of the floor trader pivot S1 in SPY and others after 20 days of closing above it.

Semiconductors (SMH) closing below 106 today. And, Transportation (IYT) and the confirmed breakdown of a bear flag that measures the move down to around 190.00.

So, yes, this has been the “greatest, most bullish, hugest and fabulous-est” market for over a year.

Let’s hope for more resilience, but be prepared should the market go from the fabulous superlative the “greatest” to the frightening superlative the “nastiest.”

S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. That makes the range break of 283.30-280.68 one to follow Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 158.45 is resistance and the place to clear with 154 some support

Dow (DIA) 264.12 the place to clear. Under 259.75 will bring more sellers

Nasdaq (QQQ) 170 the place to clear. Under 167.40 some trouble.

KRE (Regional Banks) Held 62 and rallied with the higher rates. Needs to clear 63.57 and if breaks 62.25 trouble returns.

SMH (Semiconductors) 104.58 next support or last week’s low. Through 107 on a closing basis better.

IYT (Transportation) Needs to clear 200 to at least get back in the game

IBB (Biotechnology) 114 pivotal with 112 next support

XRT (Retail) If cannot clear back over 48.30 could see 46.00 next

GLD (Gold Trust) Should 128 hold down to 127.25, it looks good with resistance around 131-132

SLV (Silver) 16.20 pivotal for the weekly close

GDX (Gold Miners) 23.00 support and 24.49 pivotal

URA (Uranium) I like this over 14.10 and longer-term very bullish.

USO (US Oil Fund) Got the fresh buying-could see 16 longer term

TAN (Solar Energy) confirmed warning phase

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 120.93 the 80-month broke today

VXX (Volatility Index) Held at the key moving averages. If clears over 30, low risk to today’s lows with fudge

PRNT (3D Printing) 26.00 pivotal and 25.50 support

DBA (PwrShs DB Ag Fd) Needs to close over 19.00-will dip toe in if does-a gap up tomorrow will be compelling

DBC (DB Commodity Idx Tracking Fund) 17.00 pivotal support