New Position: Long OIH $45.47
Current Price: 45.03
Stop: 44.27 stop
First Target: 46.75 take ½-1/3
Reason For trade: Has bounced off its 50-DMA and major support at 44.40 in a bullish phase.
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Existing Position: Long UUP $22.12
Current Price: 21.92
Stop: 21.79 stop
First Target: 23.00 take ½-1/3
Reason For trade: Has bounced off major support levels and underlying index has crossed over 200 DMA
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Existing Position: Long EWG 24.70 (1/4 position)
Current Price: 26.34
Stop: 25.77
Next target: With ¼ of the position left, will use a trailing stop
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Existing Position: Long TXN 39.18
Current Price: 38.25
Stop: 37.09
First Target: 42.91 Take 1/4 - 1/3
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Market Analysis For Trading on 8/28/2013
Today’s market action was very concerning on both a technical and fundamental level. The four major indexes gapped lower this morning, spurred on by fears of the escalating situation inSyria. Crude (UCO) prices jumped and the United States Oil Fund (USO) gapped up and consolidated for the duration of today’s trading hours. Tomorrow, I will closely watch today’s range in the Russell 2000 (IWM) for a clue to the next move in the indexes. If IWM breaks today’s low, it will take out the support offered by the recent lows. It is a long way to the 200 DMA from there, although it may find some support in the 98.75 area. If it breaks above, it will be back in an unconfirmed bull phase. The recent swing low in the S&P 500 (SPY) is another key level, which will most likely be resistance. IWM will need to clear today’s high and SPY will need to clear 64.19 for me to believe in a short term rally. I plan to trade very cautiously until the fundamental and technical outlooks improve.
S&P 500 (SPY) Confirmed the warning phase and broke the recent lows. Watch for 164.19 to clear and today’s low to hold. Subscribers: Pivots negative
Russell 2000 (IWM) Watch which direction today’s range breaks for an indicator of the next short term direction. Subscribers: Pivots negative.
Dow (DIA) Gapped lower. 145.17 is the next support. Subscribers: Pivots negative.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Gapped lower this morning. If today’s low breaks, I expect a test of the 50 DMA. Subscribers: Pivots negative.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Gapped lower, watch for today’s low to hold.
SMH (Semiconductors) Gapped lower. If today’s low breaks the next support is 36.08.
XRT (Retail) Gapped lower and closed on support. Oversold.
IYT (Transportation) Gapped lower and is now in an unconfirmed warning phase.
IBB (Biotechnology) Held support by closing above the 10 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) Holding the 10 DMA.
XHB (Homebuilders) Closed under the 200 DMA. Now in an unconfirmed distribution phase.
GLD Gapped up and closed with a doji candle.
USO (US Oil Fund) Gapped up amidst fears of conflict in Syria.
OIH (Oil Services) Closed under the 10 DMA.
XLE (Energy) Closed under the 50 DMA, bringing this into an unconfirmed warning phase.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Gapped down and is holding the 50 DMA.
Bye for Now!