Please read the portfolio carefully-2 profit targets reached, stops and targets moved around or added
New Trade:
Long: XLF 19.97 on a buy stop --filled
Name of Instrument: S&P Sel Financial SPDR Fund
Current Price: 20.03
Sell Stop: 19.19
First target: 20.97 sell ½ to 1/3
Reason for Trade: With this ETF still over the 80 monthly moving average, this is a relatively low risk entry in anticipation that it will clear the upward sloping 50 DMA and continue the uptrend
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Existing Position: Long: IYR 62.15
Current Price: 63.99
Stop Loss: 62.15 Raised to no loss stop
First Target MET: 63.63 (should have sold 1/3-1/2)
Next Target: 64.75 Sell another ½ of remaining position-keep tail
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Existing Position: Long OIH $45.47 (1/2 position)
Current Price: 47.40
Stop: 45.47 (no loss)
First Target: Reached
Next Target: Sell: 1/4 more of the open position in OIH on a limit order 47.60 or better-keep tail
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Existing Position: Long UUP $22.12
Current Price: 22.09
Stop: 21.79 (Lowered back to original stop)
First Target: 23.00 take ½-1/3
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Existing Position: Long TXN $39.18
Current Price: 39.75
Stop: 37.94
*First Target: 40.59 Sell 1/3-1/2
Next Target: 42.91 Take 1/4 - 1/3
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Impressive day as the market found relief from good numbers out of China and a seemingly more willing to cooperate, Assad. But, aside from the news and fundamental factors, looking strictly at the technical situation, I wrote last week that small caps had to come into play-the Russell 2000 did indeed manage an unconfirmed phase change to bullish (as did the S&P 500), while NASDAQ, which had been leading the charge, continued onto new 2013 highs. The holdout remaining in a warning phase is the Dow Industrials. In fact, as the other indices shine, they do so at the cost of getting a bit extended on the relative strength indicators. That could mean that by the time the Dow reaches the 50 DMA (or cannot reach the 50 DMA) time to take profits on longs.
Another anticipated outcome is the rotation to sectors that rely more on the easing of interest rates. Real Estate, Homebuilders, Transportation, and Financials caught some wind Monday. Semiconductors as well. This means that besides watching the lagging blue chips, watch these groups carefully as well, since the real test of sustenance is keeping all of these eagerly in rally mode.
S&P 500 (SPY) Unconfirmed Bullish phase which has to confirm from here. Also, has a gap to fill to 168.38 Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices.
Russell 2000 (IWM) What I wrote over the weekend, “Higher open, going to take a more bullish bias all around.” Check and check. Now, the 50 DMA is important here as well
Dow (DIA) 152.25 is the 50 DMA to clear-still a bit away
Nasdaq (QQQ) Opened higher and really, never looked back. Good leadership!
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Once crossed 19.93, strong close though not yet over the 50 DMA at 20.16
SMH (Semiconductors) 39.16 some daily chart resistance. Now, the 50 DMA totally the place to hold. Subscribers: Long ½ and using the 50 DMA to calculate risk
XRT (Retail) Crossed 80.00 which helps the case, although still in a weak warning phase
IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed bullish phase-needs to stay here
IBB (Biotechnology) Back to its ole self-on new highs.
IYR (Real Estate) Will look at 62.70 as key support to hold for this rally to sustain with 65.50 the 50 DMA resistance
XHB (Homebuilders) Impressive move today! This cleared the 50 DMA and is now in an unconfirmed bull phase. Look for 29.88 to hold.
GLD Inside day. Watch which way the range breaks.
USO (US Oil Fund) After Friday’s gap up to new highs, today was a digestion day. Still holding the upward sloping 10 DMA.
OIH (Oil Services) New multiyear high!
XLE (Energy) Subscribers: Ultimately, this move doesn’t mean all that much until it clears 84.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Made new multiyear highs today!
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: If the Fed has any intention of buying bonds, the TLT chart has to hold 102.11 and clear 104.50 next
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed the Distribution Phase.
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Elections here September 22nd. Now in an unconfirmed Bullish Phase.
FXI (China) Gapped higher and is looking strong.
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Look at today's low now for an entry point or support as it cleared the channel