Existing Position Long: XLF 19.97
Name of Instrument: S&P Sel Financial SPDR Fund
Current Price: 20.16
Sell Stop: 19.19
First target: 20.97 sell 1/3 to 1/2
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Existing Position: Long: IYR 62.15 2/3 to ½ position left
Current Price: 63.95
Stop Loss: 62.15
First Target MET: Reached!
Next Target: 64.75 Sell another ½ of remaining position-keep tail (got to 64.74-darn!)
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Existing Position: Long OIH $45.47 (1/4 position)
Current Price: 47.25
Stop: 45.47 (no loss)
First Target: Reached
Next Target: Reached!
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Existing Position: Long UUP $22.12
Current Price: 22.01
Stop: 21.79 (Lowered back to original stop)
First Target: 23.00 take ½-1/3
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Existing Position: Long TXN $39.18
Current Price: 39.92
Stop: 37.94
First Target: 40.59 Sell 1/3-1/2
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I really do not want to see what I have been writing about all week come to fruition. The Dow as the laggard catching up with its move over the 50 DMA (confirming a bullish phase) as the other indices with overbought conditions and none except NASDAQ clearing the old 2013 highs, as the last gasp of this recent run up. I gasp just writing that long winded sentence! Certainly, we continue to look friendlier than not considering the velocity of the bullish phases (upward slopes on key moving averages) and that SPY and QQQ really just finished unchanged when all is said and done. What, though, should one do if this is indeed more than a digestion/time compressionrest after the stellar week? For one, tighten stops on any existing longs. Secondly, make cashyour main position as the shorts, especially on stocks that have been beaten to a pulp all year, come with risk unless you are an experienced short seller. Third, don’t try to pick a bottom if Friday the 13th brings out the devil. Let the market tell you how far and wide this correction can go, especially with FED speak coming up, and Syria far from resolved. Remember, this rally did not reverse the topping candles from early August in the small caps (Russell 2000). So, pick up your favorite black cat, break some glass and walk under every ladder you see. Then, use common sense and not common superstitions to guide your decisions!
S&P 500 (SPY) 168.26, Tuesday’s gap low is important to hold. Subscribers: Slightly positive pivots.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 104.20 good support level to see hold. Otherwise, looking at 103. Subscribers: Negative pivots.
Dow (DIA) Confirmed phase change to bullish. Giving it some room, 151.77 is the key support to hold Subscribers: positive pivots.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Over 78.26 negated the possible topping action and Thursday’s high is 78.25. Doji candle to boot so really, anything can happen and the case for bullish remains intact.Subscribers: positive pivots.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) Unconfirmed phase change to warning as it crossed back under the 50 DMA. Tomorrow should be key
SMH (Semiconductors) As long as this holds 39.18, the gap from Tuesday stays in place and today’s action looks more like a rest
XRT (Retail) 80.00 is a pivotal area Subscribers: If holds 80.00 considering a swing long with relatively tight stop
IYT (Transportation) Today’s action looks more disconcerting than just a correction as the 2013 highs eluded this group. 116.50 needs to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) Resting still
IYR (Real Estate) Still see bottoming formation, especially if it can get back above 64.37
XHB (Homebuilders) Inverted hammer and doji candle-that’s special.
GLD Nasty day in its primary trend-hates peace and taper talk it seems
USO (US Oil Fund) If 38.84 area holds, very possible this can be getting ready for more upside.
OIH (Oil Services) 46.75 really should hold here
XLE (Energy) Marginally stayed above 84.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Wouldn’t chase now, but give it some time to see what it does from here
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: TLTs got out with profit, now positive pivots but kind of dangerous for more than daytrade until after FED
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: If this drops to 58.50 or so, we will have another opportunity
Bye for Now!