Market Analysis for Trading on 9/16/2013

Mish Schneider | September 15, 2013

Existing Position Long: XLF 19.97

Name of Instrument: S&P Sel Financial SPDR Fund

Current Price: 20.21

Sell Stop: 19.19

First target: 20.97 sell 1/3 to 1/2

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Existing Position: Long: IYR 62.15 2/3 to ½ position left

Current Price: 64.04

Stop Loss: 62.15

First Target MET: Reached!

Next Target: 64.75 Sell another ½ of remaining position-keep tail (got to 64.74-darn!)

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Existing Position: Long OIH $45.47 (1/4 position)

Current Price: 47.23

Stop: 45.47 (no loss)

First Target: Reached

Next Target: Reached!

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Existing Position: Long UUP $22.12

Current Price: 22.00

Stop: 21.79 (Lowered back to original stop)

First Target: 23.00 take ½-1/3

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Existing Position: Long TXN $39.18

Current Price: 40.35

Stop: 37.94

First Target: 40.59 Sell 1/3-1/2

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Rather docile, slow grinding rally to end an already strong week.  Some equivocation by the “experts” on whether or not the FED will taper given the tepid retail sales number. Whatever, the Dow continued to firm, along with the small caps while NASDAQ napped, but on a firm mattress. S&P 500 had an inside day as well, which gives us a pretty clear signal for Monday that the way the range breaks should set the tone, for the beginning of the week anyway. Of course Biotechnology performed the best and outperformed the overall market while Semiconductors (yay) came in with not such sloppy seconds. Lots of great setups for the savvy stock picker to focus on provided the world behaves itself.

S&P 500 (SPY) 168.26, Tuesday’s gap low is important to hold as the daily chart formation looks like a strong island very close to 2013 highs.  Subscribers: positive pivots.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 104.10 good support level to see hold with 2013 highs within reach.  Subscribers: Positive pivots.

Dow (DIA) All good provided the 50 DMA holds Subscribers: positive pivots.

Nasdaq (QQQ) 77.30 key support while the 2013 highs are really super close Subscribers: positive pivots.

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) Ended the week right on the 50 DMA. Like to see Friday’s low hold with a new close over the 50 DMA for confidence

SMH (Semiconductors) 39.72 the old 2013 high ending the week with an inside day

XRT (Retail) Held 80.00 and now over 81.00 should continue up. Inside day

IBB (Biotechnology) More to go it seems

IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and like to see it clear 64.32

XHB (Homebuilders) Hanging tough over the 50 DMA

GLD With all its pressure, the island bottom from June remains intact

USO (US Oil Fund) Calling it more sideways with upside potential as long as the 50 DMA holds

OIH (Oil Services) Resting but still looks ok

XLE (Energy) Closed back under 84.00 which may or may not mean much-really depends on how this group gets started come Monday morning

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day while it pauses near new highs

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers:  If this drops to 59.00-58.50 or so, we will have another opportunity