Market Analysis for Trading on 9/18/2013

Mish Schneider | September 17, 2013

New Trade Alert

Buy: X at the market with 20.68 limit filled 20.68

Name of Instrument: US Steel Corporation

Current Price: 20.51

Stop Loss: 19.39

First Target: 21.93 Take 1/3 to 1/2

Reason for Trade: Now that it confirmed the phase change to accumulation, the weekly and monthly charts concur that a possible bottom is in place. The risk is in line with 2 ATRs.

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Existing Position Long: XLF 19.97

Name of Instrument: S&P Sel Financial SPDR Fund

Current Price: 20.52

Sell Stop: 19.97 Raised after getting 2 ATRs

First target: 20.83 sell 1/3 to ½ (Target Lowered)

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Existing Position: Long: IYR 62.15 ¼-1/3 position left

Current Price: 64.66

Stop Loss: 62.15

First Target: Reached!

Next Target: REACHED! out of ½ balance at 65.40

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Existing Position: Long OIH $45.47 (1/4 position)

Current Price: 47.75

Stop: 45.74 Raised

First Target: Reached

Next Target: Reached!

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Existing Position: Long UUP $22.12

Current Price: 21.90

Stop: 21.79 (Lowered back to original stop)

First Target: 23.00 take ½-1/3

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Existing Position: Long TXN $39.18 ½-2/3 left

Current Price: 40.73

Stop: 39.18

***First Target: REACHED! 40.59 Sold 1/3-1/2

Next Target: 42.91 for another ½ of the balance

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The market took a giant pause-ok-poetic license-with inside days (when the range of the day is literally inside the range of the day prior) in the S&P 500NASDAQ and Russell 2000s. The Dow nearly had one, but took out Monday’s highs by a few cents midday then retreated. In other words, the market did exactly as one would expect the day before the ever so important-as if they all haven’t been-FED policy meeting. One can easily deduce from this week’s strong action and impressive comeback from the near abyss that many predicted would happen after Monday’s sell off in NASDAQ-that the market anticipates perhaps some easing of bond buying,  but nothing too catastrophic. Take it away BB and the band-we’re in your hands!

S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day low volume after gap higher Monday. OOHHH a perfect storm either way Subscribers: positive pivots in all indexes

Russell 2000 (IWM) Even more perfect-an inside day near the new highs!

Dow (DIA) Not as perfect, but still quite clear on what to do considering the gap higher Monday, tight trading range Tuesday.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day and not as nasty looking anymore

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) Confirmed phase change back to bullish provided the 50 DMA holds up

SMH (Semiconductors) New high close for 2013 again-Semis-yay!! Texas Instruments is trading higher than it has since May 2001!

XRT (Retail) Pulling away from the 50 DMA

IYT (Transportation) Possible double top-but only a possibility at this point-big earnings tomorrow before the open in Federal Express.

IBB (Biotechnology) Then there’s this-yet another new high close

IYR (Real Estate) Inside day. Has a chance to clear the 50 DMA. Rates will impact this for sure

XHB (Homebuilders) 30.00 would be good to hold

GLD With all its pressure, the island bottom from June remains intact

USO (US Oil Fund)  Unconfirmed phase change to warning

OIH (Oil Services) Steadily rising

XLE (Energy) Inside day with 84.00 pivotal

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Nasty reversal nada mas-now looking real strong

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Drum roll please..

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers:  Got the correction I waited for. Now, will jump in on signs of strength against the 50 DMA