Market Analysis for Trading on 9/5

Mish Schneider | September 4, 2013

New Position:

Long: IYR Market Order –Average Fill 62.15

Name of Instrument: iShares US R/E ETF

Current Price: 62.16

Stop Loss: 60.84

First Target: 64.85

Reason For trade: Slingshot low made on August 19th with the longer term charts (weekly, monthly) still intact. Good 1.5 ATR risk 3 ATR reward if works

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Existing Position: Long OIH $45.47

Current Price: 45.78

Stop: 44.27 stop

First Target: 46.75 take ½-1/3

Reason For trade:  Has bounced off its 50-DMA and major support at 44.40 in a bullish phase.

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Existing Position: Long UUP $22.12

Current Price: 22.18

Stop: 21.79 stop

First Target: 23.00 take ½-1/3

Reason For trade: Has bounced off major support levels and underlying index has crossed over 200 DMA

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Existing Position: Long TXN $39.18

Current Price: 39.37

Stop: 37.94 (Raised)

First Target: 42.91 Take 1/4 - 1/3

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Guess what I’m happy to report? No, it’s not that biotechnology continues to rock and roll making new highs yet again (although that is not too shabby considering I have been on top of that group forever!) And it’s not that the Dow closed up nearly $97.00 either. Give up then? Semiconductors! Yes readers, they returned during Wednesday’s session to an unconfirmed bullish phase. And this makes me happy. Not just because we got long today-of course not! I love when a technical chart patterns works!! The channel that goes back on a monthly chart for 13 years has cleared once again. That channel has to remain cleared as we head into the rest of September-a long way off-for now, though, we can use a really tight risk around the channel point giving us a perfect trade setup.

S&P 500 (SPY) Chasing an upward sloping 50 DMA which at some point has to clear Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. 102.50 is a good area to see clear. 100.00 is now the closest support level to hold

Dow (DIA) Cleared and closed over 149, which I have been calling a game changer. Now, that needs to hold to ring true

Nasdaq (QQQ) Cleared and closed above 76.55 the gap fill from the drop after 8/30. Recent highs are within reach. 74.94 is the 50 DMA

ETFs:  

XLF (Financials) “19.78 good point to clear, then we look at the 50 DMA.” Closing price 19.75

SMH (Semiconductors) 37.50 a good point to hold now Subscribers: Long ½ and using the 50 DMA to calculate risk

XRT (Retail) Inside day. Like it better over 79.03   

IBB (Biotechnology) New highs!

IYR (Real Estate)  Inside day.  Subscribers: Long at 62.14 with stop under slingshot low-will have no issues adding over 62.86 Tuesday high

XHB (Homebuilders) 28.90 good point to clear

GLD A bit tough to gauge risk for long or short right now 

USO (US Oil Fund)  Subscribers: Not quite 2 inside days but still like the range break from last 3 days as a follow the way it goes

OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: Over 46.00, I’m happy.

XLE (Energy) Subscribers: Ultimately, this move doesn’t mean all that much until it clears 84.00

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day. SubscribersWill watch for an opening range reversal

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day

UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: Unconfirmed deterioration of phase to distribution

EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Watch the 50 DMA for possible reentry or over 26.00

Bye for Now!