After last week's emotional bearish dip, we may now be seeing a continuation of this year's bullish trend. Although the week started off choppy and with relatively light volume, all fours indexes held or broke through key points. It seems like this roller coaster that we are on may now be going uphill. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Avg. both tested the 50 DMA and then had nice bounces off of it (both clearing Friday's high). IWM tested and climbed up from the 89.00 area, which has been support both last week and in February. The QQQs are also doing well and are now in an unconfirmed bullish phase (although this move is largely weighted by the impressive 3.5% jump in MSFT). TBTs are coiling and GLD went sideways after a nice gap this morning.
NOTE: Today's evening watch was prepared by Matt Mullins. Mish will be back tomorrow.
S&P 500 (SPY) SPY confirmed its bullish phase after turning to warning last Thursday. After testing the 50 DMA, it had a nice bounce. Next hurdle is the 10 DMA. Subscribers: Pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held and began its climb up from the 89.00 area of support, which held last week and in February as well. This is the weakest of the indexes but, is holding on and is beginning to look better.
Dow (DIA) This is defending the 144.00 area very well but, needs to clear 146.50 to really go. Subscribers: Pivots positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Back in an unconfirmed Bullish phase, after last week's bounce off of the 200 DMA. Subscribers: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Went sideways after the gap up this morning. Subscribers: Read Keith's market outlook from last Friday for more analysis.
XLF (Financials) Held the 50 DMA to confirm a bull phase. To be fully convinced, would want to see this clear 18.30. Otherwise, 17.75 is key support to hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) This sector has been amazing, as it continues to make all- time highs!! It looks tired with today's doji day, but it may just be taking a pause before it continues it's accent.
SMH (Semiconductors) Cleared the previously mentioned 35.13 level. In other words, bullish and still bullish for this group. 35.39 next hurdle. Subscribers: Will look at an add this week if holds well.
XRT (Retail) Defending the 50 DMA nicely. Looking good.
IYT (Transportation) Tested the 50 DMA and then retreated back. Subscribers: 107.80 and the 50 DMA needs to clear.
IYR (Real Estate) This closed above Friday's high and held the 10 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund) Glass bottom in play as long as recent lows hold.
OIH (Oil Services) Unconfirmed phase change today as it pushed through the 200 DMA. Inside day.
XLE (Energy) Unclear about whether this will hold the 200 DMA or not. Over Friday's high encouraging but under 73.50, trouble.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 59.50 huge support to hold. Doji day, after two inside days. Subscribers: Looks like it's coiling. Big eyes here
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Cleared the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to warning.
XHB (Homebuilders) Could be back as a contender if it clears the 50 DMA.
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.58 is the 200 weekly moving average
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Inside day.
FXI (China) Subscribers: 35.50 level now should hold
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
C Monday's low and the 50 DMA need to hold. Can see a run past recent highs.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CREE Cleared last week's 2013 high and poised to move further. Look for ORR against the 10 DMA to control risk.
NUS Inside day with a golden cross forming. 49.00 area needs to hold and Friday's high needs to clear.
CROX Good support on the three converging moving averages. Prefer ORR.
WYNN Reports May 6th. Watch for an ORR since this could move to 130 area
BX 2 inside days. Above Friday's high takes out the 10 DMA.
TIF Reports May 28th. Needs to clear the 10 DMA and hold S1.
Category 4: (Rip Tide)n/a
Phase Change:
AGO Reports May 9th. 19.77, the 50 DMA, needs to hold. Prefer ORR against the 10 DMA. JWN Reports May 16th. Holding the 200 DMA. 54.85 needs to hold.
TS Reports May 1 Needs to hold the50 DMA. Watch for ORR to control risk.
ROST Reports May 23 Needs to hold S1. See this as a good potential run to 66-67.00
ESV Reports April 30. Has to clear 54.15 last Thursdays high to confirm a glass bottom-and close there
RIG Reports May 6th 2 inside days right under the 200 DMA. Has to clear 49.09 and could be good for a swing until earnings
PM- Phase change to unconfirmed bullish. Needs to hold S1.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CF Risk R1 and pdh. Breaking S1 takes out pdl.
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
NOV Potential whitecap with an inside day. Friday's high and R1 need to hold.
Bye for Now!