Possible double top in S&P 500 or a launch pad to blast off from? That is the type of hesitancy this bull market has created since the end of February. And, for good reasons. First off is the NASDAQ which has yet to take out the 2012 high even with a new 2013 high today. Second is the Russell 2000 which has made lower highs on every rally since the peak in February. Then, there are the bonds, which have had analysts screaming about deflation. Finally, there have been mixed signals in recent economic indicators, with many more expected this week, not to mention, a FOMC Meeting Announcement on Wednesday.
S&P 500 (SPY) 159.71 is the 2013 high with today's high 159.65. Although I wrote about a possible double top, that is very premature as basically, the fast moving average is now beginning to accelerate up Subscribers: Pivots positive in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) This is the one index that has many traders holding onto their handkerchiefs. Friday low super important to defend with a move over 94.00 a welcoming sign if occurs. Subscribers: Signs of weakness and heading back for a look see at TWM
Dow (DIA) Accumulation day in volume and with the help of IBM, a nice move close to the highs and taking yet still not closing above the 4/15 high 147.93
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) New high 2013 close, but still finding the 2012 high elusive. Subscribers: Cleared then closed beneath the channel I've been showing you in the videos.
ETFs:
GLD Inside day, which could be a great follow the way the range breaks as it is sitting in an interesting spot on the charts Subscribers: S1 and today's low line up
XLF (Financials) DOJI (pause) day
IBB (Biotechnology) Long term this is a continuing growth area. Short term, it looks a bit tired
SMH (Semiconductors) Figuring around 37.00 will bring some profit takers in.
XRT (Retail) In spite of a selloff in AMZN, this did pretty well
IYT (Transportation) 108.85 now support to hold Subscribers: Closed above the trendline but underperformed so giving this one more day
IYR (Real Estate) New multi-year closing high
USO (US Oil Fund) After the inside day to end last week, this popped up between the 50 and 200 DMAs-a most interesting spot.
OIH (Oil Services) Tested but did not close above the 50 DMA-still a bit vulnerable Subscribers: More negative than positive here
XLE (Energy) Cleared the 50 DMA Subscribers: Didn't hit the chandelier exit so holding tail
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Tweeted all day long about the possible key reversal move today. Subscribers: Even with the FED meeting this week, we got long ticks from the lows and will hold for now
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Unless it clears the 50 DMA, a bit vulnerable here Subscribers: Aside now
XHB (Homebuilders) Possible short-term high in place if has a bad day Tuesday Subscribers: A slingshot high possibility has to be confirmed
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: I had a limit order today to buy against the brick wall lows in the futures. Never got filled-now, close highs here for a possible bottoming formation
FXI (China) Subscribers: Very nice confirm after Friday's Opening Range Reversal trade
RSX (Russia) Subscribers: Holding the balance of the position. If can get above 26.50, it will be an add
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.)
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
DFS Inside day. 43.57 the 10 DMA max risk. Ultimately, has to clear 45.50 but if does, could see another leg up
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
NTAP Reports May 22nd Provided it holds 34.15, now like much better over today's high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
PCAR 2 inside days making today low risk for mini and for swing, the 50 DMA 48.98.
CROX Like that today's high and R1 line up with risk around 15.80
TIF Reports May 28th. Doji day. A bit far from the risk, so have to use 72.40 now as max risk. Has potential to see 75 or higher before it reports
AMP Consolidating in a sideways range. Would not be afraid to buy strength on this or an ORR. To control risk, can use a stop around 73.25. Could see 77.00-78.00 next
CREE 55.30 max risk. Still see potential here to 60.00 and beyond
GMCR Reports May 8th. Inside day. Today's low is all I would give it as a risk
NSC In the swing position from Friday. Now, 76.00 good support with a close over 76.81 a new high close looking for a bigger move
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AWAY Closed right on the 50 DMA with an inside day. 30.00 max risk and has to clear today's high and R1
Phase Change:
IBM After the inside day, setup and never looked back. ORR now preferred
PETM Reports May 21st I will buy this over today's high and R1 to see if can clear the 200 DMA and run ahead of earnings
IR Inside day and back over the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to bullish. R1 and today's high line up with risk now today's low
OI Changed to unconfirmed bullish phase. Now, has to clear 26.10 and confirm the phase change
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
KKD Reports May 19th Unconfirmed phase change to warning. Max risk 14.34 and could see 13.27 or lower
WLL Inside day. 45.91 the 200 DMA risk. Positive pivots now so has to break S1
WFM Reports May 7th. Today's high max risk and some minor support 87.40 to break
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
CAT Like that S1 and today's low line up. Use today's high as max risk
Bye for Now!