Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 28, 2026

---

TITLE: Late-September Index Setups, Crude Oil and Bonds, and Selective Breakout Risk (09-28-2026)

---

VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff assessed a late-September market at a technical inflection point. The S&P futures and Nasdaq had constructive consolidation and breakout patterns, but repeated resistance, nearby support, and the need to reclaim prior highs made confirmation important. He monitored crude oil and TLT as intermarket pressures: oil strength and falling bonds could weigh on stocks, so he favored patience and tight stops rather than assuming a rally. Geoff emphasized focusing on relative strength during the broader correction, contrasting weak HPQ and equal-weight RSP with potential setups in NVIDIA, cybersecurity shares, Visa, AMD, and Microsoft. He discussed opening-range entries, pivots, average true range, and scaling or exiting positions if price action failed to confirm. He also noted that higher rates and inflation could compress growth-stock valuations, making Micron’s earnings report and the SMH breakout important tests. His conclusion was to prioritize stronger names and wait for bonds, crude, and indexes to support the trade.

---

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

1. [00:00:00] Index Patterns and Key Levels: Geoff found constructive consolidation and breakout structures in the S&P futures and Nasdaq, while emphasizing repeated resistance and nearby support. He advised watching prior highs for confirmation and corrective lows for signs the broader pattern was failing.
2. [00:08:06] Crude, Bonds, and Intraday Signals: Geoff weighed crude’s strength against TLT weakness and reviewed short-term divergences, moving averages, and opening-range signals in the index futures and ETFs. His takeaway was to avoid overconfidence in a stock rally until intermarket pressure eased.
3. [00:23:40] Relative Strength and Stock Selection: Geoff contrasted HPQ’s weak relative performance and momentum with NVIDIA’s more promising breakout setup. He used RSP to illustrate the correction and stressed that new positions should favor stronger stocks, while existing holdings still require price-based risk management.
4. [00:34:42] Cybersecurity Setups and Visa: Geoff reviewed cybersecurity names including Okta, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, and Fortinet, comparing breakout quality, resistance, and stops. He also favored Visa over weaker payment and financial peers, applying relative strength rather than chasing every chart pattern.
5. [00:44:28] Semiconductors, Micron, and Rates: Geoff discussed AMD’s breakout and the SMH consolidation, with Micron’s upcoming report as a possible catalyst or setback. He explained how higher rates and inflation can compress growth-stock multiples, making confirmation in semiconductors and bonds important.
6. [00:54:22] Microsoft, Meta, and Trade Management: Geoff outlined Microsoft’s potential breakout levels and discussed managing Meta after a sharp move, including when taking partial profits might make sense. He also revisited futures entries, stops, index divergences, RSP, and VIX as evidence for or against a short-term rebound.
7. [01:05:47] AI Catalysts and the Closing Plan: Geoff connected the market’s search for demonstrable AI returns to Meta and Microsoft’s Copilot prospects, while noting that technical confirmation remained necessary. He closed by favoring stronger stocks such as NVIDIA, Okta, and Microsoft, and urged patience until crude and bonds improved.