Active Investing Edge Mentoring for October 27, 2026
TITLE: AI Skepticism Meets Key Support: SMH Breadth, Earnings Reactions, and Tactical Risk Levels (10-27-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff framed the market around investors’ reluctance to pay for expected artificial-intelligence growth, despite his belief that AI will drive substantial productivity. He noted that higher interest rates make valuations less forgiving and that SMH’s failed rally, even as its three largest holdings reached new highs, signaled poor breadth. He identified the 500 area and a monthly moving average as important support references, while warning that a deeper correction could approach 40% and the 400 area. Geoff emphasized that strong earnings followed by selling would confirm investor skepticism, while a shift toward buying good news could quickly improve sentiment. He also reviewed support and continuation signals in SPY, QQQ, and RSP, and treated crude oil’s direction and the coming Federal Reserve decision as near-term influences. Across individual stocks, he stressed waiting for confirmation, using defined stops, avoiding premature earnings trades, and favoring setups with manageable risk.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] SMH Support and Market Sentiment: Geoff examined SMH’s weak breadth, key support near 500, and the monthly trend reference, while explaining why investors may be discounting AI growth. He advised watching whether earnings are bought or sold and respecting a possible deeper correction.
- [00:21:59] ETF Levels and Broader Participation: Geoff compared continuation signals in SPY and QQQ with RSP’s moving-average levels, noting that equal-weight participation could help distinguish broad strength from megacap dependence. He also outlined how opening-range levels and the pivot could guide intraday risk.
- [00:27:48] Megacap Earnings and Stock Setups: Geoff reviewed Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Tesla, weighing chart structure and upcoming earnings against the AI investment narrative. He described conditions for watching Microsoft and Tesla while cautioning against buying weak or poorly positioned names without confirmation.
- [00:40:45] Managing Positions and Intraday Risk: Geoff assessed positions and possible setups in Visa, Mastercard, Eli Lilly, IBB, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Palantir, Dell, and other names. He emphasized partial profit-taking, defined support and stops, and restraint ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
- [00:57:15] Pfizer and Data Center Sentiment: Geoff outlined a Pfizer pullback and opening-range setup, then discussed CoreWeave and Nebius as gauges of sentiment toward data-center investment. He explained that a recovery in these pressured stocks could signal improving confidence in the AI buildout.
- [01:06:33] Semiconductor Watchlist and Qualcomm: Geoff screened semiconductor names and highlighted Qualcomm’s relative strength during SMH’s decline, describing a confirmed entry above resistance with a stop below support. He also reviewed other candidates and stressed waiting for SMH to improve before favoring the group.
- [01:25:16] Biotech and Consumer Breakouts: Geoff identified a flag pattern in biotech name ARQT and discussed IBB, Regeneron, Vertex, and Best Buy. He emphasized earnings-date awareness and defined risk, treating attractive patterns as watchlist candidates rather than automatic entries.
- [01:35:13] Closing Market Review and Risk Discipline: Geoff revisited the SPY opening-range reversal, crude oil’s breakdown, and the market’s response ahead of the Fed and major earnings. He then advised patience in Zscaler and Oracle, favoring clearer risk levels and confirmation over chasing extended moves.
