Active Investing Edge Mentoring for October 29, 2026
TITLE: Post-Fed Earnings Tests, Big-Tech Rotation, and Risk-Defined Breakout Setups (10-29-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff stated that the market showed little direct reaction to the Fed, making the overnight response to Google and Microsoft earnings a more meaningful test. He watched Nasdaq and S&P levels, overnight highs and lows, and whether the market could absorb weakness in Google and later Microsoft. He also noted substantial AI-related corporate debt issuance and monitored TLT and the seven-year auction, while describing bond price action as contained. Across sectors, Geoff highlighted strength in equal-weighted RSP, financials, health care, and selected semiconductor names against weakness in mega-cap technology, framing the action as potentially healthy rotation. He explained how compression and expansion, failed breakdowns, and reversals at important support can guide entries, while emphasizing confirmation and defined stops. His stock-specific examples included cautious, conditional setups in MU and AMD, and monitoring SMH and QQQ. Geoff treated Amazon’s earnings as a significant risk, distinguishing the decision to hold options from carrying stock through an uncertain report.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Post-Fed Market and Earnings Test: Geoff compared the muted S&P 500 response to the Fed with the overnight reaction to Google and Microsoft earnings. He identified Nasdaq levels and overnight highs and lows as key checks on whether the market could absorb the news.
- [00:13:02] Bonds, Rotation, and Sector Setups: Geoff examined TLT’s range and the scale of AI-related debt issuance, then assessed RSP, crude, and sector charts. He favored waiting for price confirmation and discussed biotech setups while avoiding an unsupported forecast for gold.
- [00:24:39] Opening Volatility and Mega-Cap Weakness: As the open unsettled the earlier constructive view, Geoff tracked RSP against mega-cap technology and reassessed Microsoft and Google. He also managed Amazon earnings risk, stressing patience around the opening range rather than committing prematurely.
- [00:38:09] Semiconductor Levels and Entry Discipline: Geoff used SMH’s support test to frame MU and AMD. He outlined a bearish breakdown pattern in MU but preferred confirmation before buying, while viewing AMD as relatively stronger and tying any entry to market conditions and a clear stop.
- [00:51:51] Individual Setups and Position Risk: Geoff reviewed additional names, including a high-momentum breakout where risk was difficult to control, and discussed relative strength and pivot-based entries in another technology stock. He favored waiting for confirmation when stops were too wide or uncertain.
- [01:02:03] Failed Breakdowns and Market Structure: Geoff used Merck and Amazon to explain why a break of support without follow-through can become a reversal signal, while noting earnings risk. He applied the same framework to SMH, then compared choppy SPY action with a more orderly QQQ correction.
- [01:15:50] Semiconductors and Relative Strength: Geoff noted that SMH’s strength appeared broader than gains in a few large constituents, and assessed QCOM’s resilience against market weakness. He treated potential divergences as context, not automatic buy signals, requiring a bullish pattern for entry.
- [01:21:48] Rotation, Watchlist, and Closing Risk Checks: Geoff summarized a mixed market with tech weakness and strength in RSP, health care, and financials, then reviewed watchlist entries and stops. He closed by identifying SPY and SMH levels, crude, and mega-cap behavior as confirmation signals, while cautioning about Amazon earnings exposure.
