Happy New Year

September 29, 2011

Uncategorized

By Geoff Bysshe


Tomorrow is Rosh Hashana which means volume is likely to be very light, but it doesn't mean there won't be any volatility.

All 4 market watch are still stuck in their 2 month ranges, but the conditions are quite bearish. The phase remains bearish with even the Q's closing back under the 50-day MA, and All 4 are also below their 10 and 20-day MA's.

The pivots are not only negatively stacked, tomorrow they will line up with yesterday's low, This makes the FTP an even more important level than normal. The IWM's FTP is lower than yesterday's low as it sold off the hardest today.

There are two reasons the slide may stop near today's close. One, the trend line from the lows of last week has held in the decline; two, the highs of 9/22 and 9/23 have either been reached (IWM and QQQ) or are not much further down and that should be support.

All things considered, the big trend is down and down is also the short term direction right now so unless we have a substantial gap down, weakness should probably be followed and strength sold. For the bulls out there, I will look for O.R. Reversals as well in stocks that demonstrate good relative strength.