Position Updates & Gauges For Trading on 12/14/2016

Mish Schneider | December 14, 2016

***Note: We came inches from our trailing stop in FCX at 14.44 but did not get hit. Use same stop.

***EXC: Raise sell stop to breakeven at 32.08. Lower first target to sell ½ the position to 35.97 market if touched. And be prepared for a go to market exit.

After the FED meeting results settle in, there should be a few good trade setups to get into. In the meantime, our small but profitable portfolio is a nice place to be with 2016 soon coming to an end.


Existing Position: EXC: Long at 32.08 ATR: 1.11

Name of Instrument: Exelon Corp

Current Price: 34.46

Reason For Trade: I’ve been tracking this stock all year after it made a spectacular move up early in the year. It has traded under the 80-month moving average since 2008 and pierced it once this year. On November 14th, it had a reversal pattern that confirmed. Our entry is after it cleared the fast-moving average with a generous risk of 2 ATRs. As an energy company in the U.S. it delivers electricity and natural gas. Our first target takes it back to August levels and above the 80-month moving average would be a major breakout.

***RAISED Sell Stop: 32.08

First Target: Sell ½ position at 36.07 (Market if touched)

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Existing Position: DBA: Long at 20.16 ATR: .16

Name of Instrument: PwrShs DB Ag Fd

Current Price: 20.13

Reason For Trade: Probably our third time buying this near the lows in 2016. From a technical standpoint, we wanted to get the risk within 4 ATRs of the 2016 low at 19.55 so we entered a bit early. However, from a long viewpoint, the momentum has shifted positive before the price has. Inflation numbers are rising. After a protracted bear market, like that of copper’s, rising inflation will help this ETF. The intention is to hold this against the 2016 lows for a swing position. That means that our first target at 21.44 is reasonable as that is where it traded in July. However, it is also a major breakout on the weekly and monthly charts. That makes the risk reward potential worth it. If we do anything to cut the risk, it would be to raise the stop to under 19.86 the October 3rd low. So, we have leverage.

Sell Stop: 19.49

First Profit Target: Sell ½ at 21.44 (market if touched)

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Existing Position: GREK: Long 7.27 ATR: .12

Name of Instrument: Global X MSCI Greece ETF

Current Price: 8.17

Reason For Trade: Our second trade after scratching the first one, this is a potential growth ETF I believe is worth the slightly revised risk/reward ratio. Fundamentally, statements have emerged that there will not be a Grexit. The monetary issues have not been resolved, but are well in the market at this point. Any good news that emerges, a move and close again over 9.00 will be bullish with a possible target of around 11.00.

Breakeven Stop: 7.27

***REACHED First Target: Sell ½ at 8.14 (MIT)

***Second Target: Sell ½ at 8.87 (MIT)

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Existing Position: FCX: Long Tail at 10.60 ATR: .48

Name of Instrument: Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

Current Price: 15.04

Reason For Trade: In a bullish phase, it reported on October 25th. The report was mixed as it was better revenue than last year but lower than what the street expected. Technically, it is over the 50-week moving average and could be basing out. Our target is below the August peak high making the risk/reward to the recent lows solid. We bought it on an opening range reversal pattern. One we can tighten risk on should it fail to hold recent gains.

Trailing Stop: 14.44

First Profit Target: Sold 1/3 at 12.03 ahead of original target

***REACHED! Second Profit Target: Sell 1/3 at: 12.97 (MIT)

***REACHED!!! Third Profit Target: Sell ½ or remaining balance 14.03 (Market if Touched)

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