Thanks to so many of you who gave me feedback on developing and working with a trading plan! Every teachable moment serves as a lesson to myself as well.
SPY did not have an Accumulation day in volume as I had originally thought and tweeted. So although we managed to close back above the adaptive moving average, we are still very much in the middle of the channel, bullish phase, but still lacking commitment from buyers. Within the channel there is now a trendline that will break out tomorrow if we can actually close out the week above 135.60. QQQ did have an accumulation day which is not surprising considering it's been stronger than the S&P 500. It also held the adaptive moving average and closed up .6%. IWM did not have an accumulation day and closed just on the adaptive moving average. The pattern is beginning to look more positive, but like SPY would really like to see some volume coming in at these levels. Interesting is that ESM11 had strong volume today. Therefore, tomorrow look at NASDAQ and the continuous contract Emini as the best indicators to see if we can continue to forge ahead with volume.
ETF's: today was the second time since April 27 that we closed at 36.75 in the SMH. Technically, we cannot call this a new high close but a good one nonetheless. The volume in this ETF was above average and the candle was a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily. We established a long position above the floor trader pivot at 36.45. Mini swing traders were able to take profits at .5 an ATR and go no loss stop. Swing traders should continue to use a stop beneath the last swing low at 35.67 until two ATR's is achieved.
FXE confirmed a arning phase but like yesterday, a weak one because the 50 day moving average is still sloping up. Plus it held 141.02 the swing low from April 18. Tomorrow 142.36 which is just above today's high, especially on a closing basis, should be a good indication on the next direction of the dollar-either acting as resistance or the price to get above.
GLD** closed just beneath the floor trader pivot. My original plan was to buy this on an opening range reversal, but now that we have two days under the FTP will look at it again tomorrow. The FTP tomorrow comes in at 146.22 which now lines up as support if it comes in higher or if it comes in weaker and GLD then proceeds to trade above it with an opening range confirmation, a place to go long most likely for a mini swing trade.
SLV stopped at 32. The 70 day exponential moving average comes in at 31.50 so this area is now one of support off of that moving average. Today, the 50 day moving average became neutral to slightly down in slope. But considering how hard and fast this has fallen from all time highs, that's not bad. Today it was never able to get through the FTP which it now has two days beneath. Tomorrow that comes in at 33.32 with R1 at 34.68. I will also be watching to see how that opens tomorrow. It is not oversold but could still rally up to 36.50 for a decent day trade if it gets going.
XRT, IBB continue to be incredibly strong.
IYR** came close to last week's low at 60.67 today and bounced but yet could not close above the adaptive moving average at 61.44. As this is very much still in a bullish phase, and with two days under the FTP which comes in tomorrow at 61.22, we could still see it play catch up with a move to retest the highs of 62.67.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see a rally in XLE since it held the swing low back from March 15 at 72.90 although it traded beneath there intraday today and closed at 74.15. Same with USO as it got very close to the 200 day moving average of 37.71. That also could make a move up to 41.25 area. With two days under the FTP, that comes in tomorrow at 39.09.
The Chinese stocks got hammered today, but FXI held the 200 day moving average and closed just above the FTP which tomorrow comes in at 43.56. Today's low was 43.10 so we still have a really good risk to buy against. The 50 day moving average is still sloping up which means that although we are in a warning phase, the fact that it's holding a key moving average could mean that this is still an opportunity to get long. On the other hand, if it breaks down beneath today's low could also easily see a selloff and a short opportunity with the first area of support at 42.50, and a gap that has yet to be filled down to 42.05.
XLF went to 15.82 today then bounced. The 15.80 area has been big support. The longer that area holds the better it is for the overall market. That means if 15.80 breaks down, go back to look at FAZ, especially if that trades back above 41.90.
Picks: I'm still looking for short term trading patterns and stocks that have minimal risk. And, I continue to be partial to the ETFs mentioned above
AAPL** I exited the swing position yesterday, and watched it break the 50 day moving average, than trade back through it. Even though this had an opening range reversal early this morning, I wasn't convinced since it was so far from the floor trader pivot. Now it has two days under the FTP and the 50 day moving average comes into play once again as support at 344.55. At this point, some of you might be thinking that this has become somewhat of an obseesion for me, but that is because I can't imagine any sustained rally in the market without Apple following along. And it's been taunting me with its relatively small trading range and low volume. Tomorrow's FTP comes in at 345.33. That is a great risk against the 50 day moving average if this comes in around unchanged. Otherwise if it comes in higher and holds the FTP, I would be looking to reenter on an opening range breakout. Day to swing.
DNDN**I'm putting this back on the list because now it is oversold on the 2 day RSI with three days under the floor trader pivot. Since we wait for confirmation, there was never a reason to enter the trade today. Now, it tested the 50 and 200 day moving average down at 37.14 with its low today of 37.30 and bounced. The convergence I spoke of last night of all the moving averages gives us a good wall of support and risk to beneath 36.88. The FTP comes in tomorrow at 37.74 which is a good risk for either of mini or a swing trade. Would like to see it trade and close above R1 at 38.18 as a good indication to take it home over the weekend. There's overhead resistance at the 10 day moving average at 39.85 but based on the recent consolidation and support at these areas, it could easily blow through the 10 day moving average and up to recent highs made at 43.96. On the weekly chart, a close above that and we are looking at the possibility of all time highs made in 2010 at 57.67. Day to swing.
ACOM**this is a Condition 2 that is oversold. It also has two days under the floor trader pivot. Couple of choices of risk. Swing traders would have to use under the 50 day moving average 35.08. Mini swing traders under the recent swing low at 39.11. Daytraders can use beneath today's low 39.63. Buy over the FTP which comes in tomorrow at 40.51 and depending on your timeframe use the aforementioned risks. The 10 day moving average is overhead at 41.73 which needs to clear on a closing basis in order for this to continue to look firm. All-time high was made last week at 45.78. Day to mini.
CTRP**has a trendline coming down from the recent highs or over today's high 48.69. The moving averages which are currently way below the current price point are interesting nonetheless since they are converging with the 50 approaching a cross above the 200. Preferably would like to buy this on an opening range reversal against yesterday's low 46.74, but would not dismiss the possibility of buying on strength and using the 10 day moving average 47.80 as a tighter risk. Swing traders could use a stop under 45.26 the low that was made on April 4. Recent high is 50.57 and in November 2010 all-time high of 53.16 was made. Day to swing.
MAN**we traded this a while ago and took out a little bit of money. Since then it sold off, but now for the last two days has held the 50 day moving average. The risk is under yesterday's low 62.97 and so could look at this on an opening range reversal against yesterday's low. Since it closed right on the floor trader pivot today and now has two days under, buy above the FTP at 63.80 with a risk to under today's low 63.08 although yesterday's low 62.97 makes more sense. Then, R1 corresponds with today's high at 64.51. If it gets through that could be an add or at least a good indication that this will continue moving up. Multiyear high was made on April 22 at 69.64. At that time I remember writing that if we got a weekly close above 70 we were looking at a potentially explosive move to the upside. That is still very much the case. Day to swing
SLB**on the weekly chart the 50 crossed over the 200 weekly moving average two weeks ago. Since then it has sold off but has a good wall of support at 80. On the daily chart, it has bounced off of the 200 simple day and 60 day exponential moving averages. Had an inside day today. A near-term risk is under the swing low from yesterday 80.83. Swing traders can use a stop under 80. Mini swing traders can use the FTP which comes in tomorrow at 82.98. There is overhead resistance that corresponds at 83.52 the 10 day moving average and today's high. Therefore, would way to clear today's high as a confirmation of strength. The overhead resistance is at the 50 day moving average which comes in at 88.06. Day to mini or swing if you want to trail up stops.
EQT**this is another energy stock that has held up well. Had an inside day today and now gives a couple of choices of risk. Swing traders can use beneath the 50 day moving average at 48.40, mini swing traders beneath yesterday's low 49.31. The FTP comes in right around unchanged 50.30 which is another good area to watch for especially for a day trade. Above today's high 50.82 is a buying opportunity, but must clear the overhead 10 day moving average resistance at 51.55 to really get going. Multiyear high was made last week at 53.47. On the weekly chart has a strong base with potential to make a significant move up. All time high was made in May of 2008 at 76.14. Day to swing.
Shorts:
FAZ if it gets back above 41.90 could be a buy opportunity as an ultrashort on the financials, especially if it corresponds with XLF beneath 15.80.
FXI if it breaks 43.10. Support areas mentioned above.
Goodnight!