SPY closed unchanged. Since it traded a bit lower after the market closed, we could technically say that it might have been close to a Distribution day in volume as overall volume was light although it exceeded yesterday's. QQQ definitely had a Distribution day in volume and is still hanging onto 57 where the 50 and adaptive moving averages are. As I showed you in the video today, let's not discount the possibility of a bull flag forming which would breakout over 57.40 on a closing basis. Otherwise, should it break 57 we might see some selling pressure come in. But, I am still anticipating dips as buy opportunities. IWM had a bullish engulfing pattern at the highs and an Accumulation day in volume. Once again, keep your eye on the mid-caps to lead.
Each day, figuring out which sector and group is going to be the mover is no easy task. It does seem that either you have to be a day trader with very tight stops, an extremely patient mini swing trader buying weakness on strong stocks and strength on weak stocks or a swing trader where you place your stops based on your entry parameter, walk away and pay no attention to the noise. This market is a great lesson in the importance of determining what your target is for your trade before you make the entry so that you don't drive yourself crazy.
Other ETF's: IBB an incredible swing trade which had you bought at 97.43 would have five dollars into the trade or approximately 4 ATR's. For those of you who have taken the swing course, your exit strategy should be in place according to the swing trading rules.
SMH** they (yes-the proverbial they) certainly didn't make this easy today. It went right up to the 50 day moving average, sold off at the end of the day closing at 34.62 but trading underneath that level in the aftermarket. 34.32 which was the pivotal area and the adaptive moving average for today, on a lower opening now becomes a level of resistance. Hold of that area however, and I will be encouraged that with a little more work we might see the semiconductors power through.
FAS closed back in the warning phase wedged between the adaptive and the 50 day moving average. A move back over 30.94 puts us back over the 50 day moving average and if you can take out today's high 31.17 that would be a good sign. Otherwise, a break beneath 30.64 today's low and we could be looking at a move down to recent support at 29.95.
GLD and SLV-all I can say is-Hmmmmmmmm.
FXE Still anticipating a move above the last swing high at 142.28 with the next area of resistance not until we get to 144.20 where there is a gap that was left from January 14, 2010. At this point, unless FXE convincingly breaks beneath 140, the trend certainly looks like a weaker dollar for now.
OIH**from a daytrading standpoint, has four days under the FTP. This was rallying after the close back up to test today's high. Depending on how it opens tomorrow, would love to get a chance to buy over the FTP with a good risk. Otherwise, let's see what happens near all-time high at 166.96.
IYR yet another inside day holding 59.38 for two days now. There is strong resistance around the 59.80. Once it takes out that area on a closing basis should continue up to recent highs at 60.79. Otherwise if it breaks the last two days lows wouldn't be surprised to see a move back down to about 58.70.
XRT busted loose today which is why we had such a good day in retail stocks.
Picks: I am not straying from the formula of short-term trading patterns. Great trades in DECK, JAZZ, CBG (closed on new highs) and HLF. JCP a recent pic also had an extraordinary day as well as FCX after a shaky start.
Longs:
NETL**because SMH never got convincingly above the 50 day moving average, I was hesitant to buy this on strength. Since we never got an opening range reversal I remained aside all day. Now, it came close to the 10 day moving average at 41.51 with today's low which now will be the wall of support for tomorrow. Interesting inverted Hammer candle, so above 41.90 can use the 10 day moving average as a risk if it holds there. But again, watch SMH even though this went counter to its move down two days ago. Overall, I still think this is one of the best semiconductors to watch. day to swing.
TSL**inside day and three days under the floor trader pivot. One of these trades that if a move over the FTP aligns with the 10 day moving average which intersects at 28.60 and an opening range breakout would buy half a position and add above R1. Risk is 27.70, the 50 day moving average for a swing and under today's low 28.21 for a mini swing. A close above today's high 29.50 and we should be able to get up to 31.08 the swing hi from February 22 and possibly beyond.
IBM**is in consolidation mode with an inside day today and the 10 which crossed over the 50 day moving average yesterday. 162.40 is where the 10 day moving average comes in so naturally would prefer to buy it on weakness. However, if it takes out 164.73 might be inclined to buy strength provided the risk is no more than .5 of an ATR. Recent high was made on March 9 at 167.72. Day to swing
DOV**had an inside day today and is forming somewhat of a bull flag. Above today's highs 66.75 that flag breaks especially on a closing basis. 66.22 is today's low and the perfect risk if you buy this on strength. Otherwise, the 10 day moving average comes in at 65.47 so if we can get there buy on an opening range reversal as that is your wall of support. Very close to all-time highs which if breaks should give us a minimum move to 77. Day to swing
NVDA lately I love to give you one trade which breaks all the rules and this is perfect. On January 6 it gapped higher rallying to 26.17 by February 2. Then it came all the way down breaking the 50 and the 10 day moving averages. But what I noticed is that the low of this recent move is been 17.01 which means it literally came one one cent from filling the gap that was left. Now it might be basing against that 17.01 wall of support and today it had an inside day outperforming the market. It also has six days under the floor trader pivot. Therefore, you know the mantra, buy above the FTP and to control risk use yesterday's low 17.42 and add if it takes out R1. Also note that the 10 day moving average comes in overhead at 18.47. Mini to swing if it closes strong.
BMO**I believe some of you bought this when I recommended it a while back around February 24. Since then it has rallied very close to all time highs made in 2007 at 67.60. Today it has an inside day. If the market remains firm, this will clearly take out the high and go onto new highs. To control risk your wall of support is 65.35. Buy either on an opening range reversal against the wall of support. Today was a DOJI day so 65.83 is pivotal. Last Friday's hi was 66.27, the number that must clear on a closing basis to get this going. Day to swing.
PNC**if the financials look firm tomorrow this would be a good "go to" stock. Has two days under the floor trader pivot after the 10 crossed above the 50 today. Good support at today's low 62.98 to use as our risk. Buy over the FTP half position, risking to under today's low and add accordingly. If this comes in lower, would do nothing until we test the moving averages down at the 62.30 area. I've been watching this stock base since 2010. If it gets going at any point in the near future, could have an explosive move to the upside. Day to swing.
XEC**extremely close to all-time high made on February 28 at 117.95. Today's high was 117.93 before it retreated. 116.67 today's low is a good wall of support. Buy it against that number on a lower open or if it breaks out above 117.95 follow that move up. Since so close to the all time high, projected move is to 130+. Day to swing.
Goodnight!