I am on the road this weekend, therefore, this is somewhat abbreviated version for Monday.
Needless to say, damage was done on Friday with SPY closing down 1% with another Distribution Day in volume. But, the channel is intact, the slope on the 50 day moving average still up. The internals are weak, the chart formation still positive. When signals are this mixed, our stance of smaller positions and quicker exits has been the most prudent to date. And, there were some counter movers Friday-making the situation more of a-follow the leader of the day, get in and get out-scenario.
SPY 50 DMA comes in at 132.64-slightly beneath the channel line. One possible scenario is that we hold Friday's low or go beneath it slightly and see the index rally or at least hover with an inside day. Another is we gap lower and test the 50 DMA and channel line. Remember that often if a channel breaks down and then the price retraces through it-we could get a good entry with low risk. But, I am keeping my sentiment from last week very much alive-until we see an Accumulation Day in volume-market commitment to long side remains short term. But, on the other hand, until I see the chart pattern confirm the weak internals-not committing to the short side either.
QQQ looks similar to SPY-still in a positive phase with a Distribution in Volume. IWM once again, the exception. From a confirmed bullish phase, back to an unconfirmed warning phase. And with a upward sloping 50 DMA and Distribution Day in volume.
Looking at ETFS: GLD-which was a featured pick on Friday-held Thursday's low, made an OR low and then took out all the points we were waiting for-R1, the 30 minute opening range and ended just beneath the adaptive moving average. A gap above 147.81 is compelling-otherwise, watch for support around 146.25 area.
SLV-outperformed the market, but if the market remains weak, could easily see this break down further with underlying support at the 200 SMA or 28.60 area. Now, has to clear 34.70 to get a rally going back up to 38-the 50 DMA.
IBB held up as biotechs have been strong for quite some time.
SMH fell but outperformed the market. Almost had an inside day, breaking Thursday's low by 2 ticks and closing a bit better. Again, will focus on this group if market recovers.
XLE and OIH held up-but still very much in a warning phase with a downward sloping 50 DMA- In the near term, can use the adaptive moving averages a signal to follow-if they can rally above, a sign of recent price levels basing, but otherwise, an indication of more weakness with a test of the 200 DMA more likely.
FAZ-Another featured pick to follow in weakness-had a great opportunity Friday to buy over the FTP and 30 minute opening range. Not quite up to last week's high, will now look at 43.85 as either resistance should market regain strength-or the next area to penetrate for another leg up.
Picks-All mentioned from the long side are outperformes Friday with short term trading patterns and/or clear defined risk. All are swing candidates if market recovers otherwise, can daytrade the bigger stocks and with a good close, keep some on for a miniswing at least.
AMZN outperformed and finding resistance at the 10 day moving average. Would either look to buy weakness against 195 or on strength above 199.80 with Friday's low 197.24 a good tight risk.
NVLS a repeat from last week. Inside day, outperformer. Has to clear 37.00 to continue up-otherwise, would look to see what happens at the 50 DMA underneath or around 35.25.
APKT** only one day under the FTP, but holding the 30 day moving average at 76.15, a good risk and appears to be flagging. A move over Friday's high 78.21 is a breakout above a trendline with a decent risk.
TSLA** Had an inside day. Since earnings, tested the 50 DMA and then gapped higher last Thursday. Not only an inside day, but held the 10 DMA at 27.34-now a clear risk over Friday's high 28.28. The action since late March looks like a base. Could stay in this one for a swing especially if it takes out last swing high 28.95
IBM** Inside day on Friday, holding the 10 DMA. Has more like a 2 ATR risk for a swing trade to under the 50 DMA, but alos loks like it's coiling to go higher with any market cooperation. 169.30 are is now near term support, 170 pivotal and a break above 171.40 positive.
CMG if bought this last week at 274 once it broke above FTPs, you are in good shape. NOw, a hold above 280, and can use the 10 DMA at 274.70 as another tight swing entry or even 276 if holds. Otherwise, above 280, will look for the corresponding intraday low if it's in line with no more than 1/3 of and ATR risk on buying strength.
Note-In addition to FAZ and GLD, 2 other Friday picks- D and EQT held up well and went counter to the market.
Shorts-Still watch XLE OIH FAZ and TWM.
RBCN-2 inside days, under the 200 DMA. If can't get back above 23.53-which by the way may turn out ot be a good low risk buy against recent lows-then looks vulnerable under Friday's low 23.13.
ANR Also under the 200 but another outperformer that looks vulnerable as long as it stays beneath 50.66, yet could be ready for a pop if firms above that area.
Since I am working on a laptop from a hotel room, I will be looking on Monday before the open for any other good short or longs that come up-especially once I can see how the pre market looks.