We are now in an unconfirmed warning phase in SPY, which happily did not have another Distribution day in volume. Furthermore, the slope of the 50 day moving average is up so we are calling this a weak unconfirmed warning phase. 132.66 is the 50 DMA. A move above is a good sign, but would still have to clear the channel that broke today with a follow through and close above 133.35. 131.60 is S1-a drop beneath and anticipate it testing the April low at 129.50 next.
QQQ also broke beneath the 50 DMA which has a neutral slope. Volume today light.
IWM has 2 days under the 50 which confirms the warning phase except that too has a positive slope on the 50.
DIA looks the most promising with the 50 DMA close by, right above today's high 123.88. Furthermore, it held the 70 day exponential moving average at today's low 123.07. Therefore, watch DIA first and foremost as the best indicator on the next direction. Above today's high a move at least to fill the gap left from today and a break of today's low, a more than likely test of 120.65, the swing low from April 18th.
QID could not close above the 70 day exponential moving average nor could SDS or TWM. With gaps higher today, the ultrashorts look like they could be basing so eyes on today's range. FAZ-the recommended buy from Friday is the troublesome thorn that without the financials in tow, any bounce in the market will be a sell opportunity until we see a shift in volume to the buy side.
Other ETFs:
SLV** Had an inside day and outperformed the market. Plus, the candle is a bullish engulfing pattern. As the 10 day moving average is right overhead at 34.25. That is a good point to buy against should SLV come in higher. A sign of a further rally is a move and close above 34.48. Then, would look at 36 as next resistance.
GLD** closed right beneath the adaptive moving average at 147.91. Since it has had a decent size move from Friday, I would expect should it gap higher, we will get an opportunity to buy an Opening Range Reversal rather than chase strength.
XRT**stopped right at the 50 DMA at 51.67. The signal to buy for a swing trade using the 50 DMA as an excellent risk is either above the FTP at 52.20 or above R1 at 52.70.
SMH also stopped right at the 50 DMA and 70 EMA. Today's low also corresponds with 35.09, the swing low from April 20th. If the market firms, would focus on SLV, SMH and XRT.
FXE is a key as well. 140 pivotal area for the Euro. 139.90 is the 200 weekly moving average as well.
Picks: Another day to focus on ETFs and indexes. Otherwise, slim pickings on ideal setups for longs and now with a lot of damage done, with shorts as well. I found POT after the market opened as it held the 200 DMA and after several days under the FTP, had a good risk. Sold more than half already at .5 ATR. Above today's high, will clear 2 days of resistance and could see more upside. Right now, I am using Hotscans throughout the day to find new setups that are not obvious at market close.
CI*had a big move up last week to 49.90 which was a multiyear high not seen since 2008. Then, with the pressure of the market, spent the last three trading sessions losing all of the gains. Now has three days under the floor trader pivot which comes in tomorrow at 48.39. The 10 day moving average is at 48.54. Not looking to buy if it breaks convincingly under 47.93, otherwise would use the floor trader pivot to buy half a position using today's low 47.93 as a good risk and then add if it can get back above R1 at 48.85. Day to mini.
TD**had an inside day today and held the 10 day moving average at 85.65 with today's low 85.67. The 50 day moving average comes in overhead 86.27, and on the daily chart there is a trendline that will break out above Friday's hi 86.79. Therefore, would look to buy this on weakness either against the FTP and 86.17 or if it comes in lower against S1 85.79. If the market is firm, can also look to buy this on strength using that 50 day moving average as a tighter risk for a day trade and under today's low for a mini swing to swing trade. Day to swing
ACOM** although the 10 day moving average is now sloping down, I like that it held last week's low which was 38.05. Most of the price movement since April 29th, the day of the huge move up, has looked more like noise than a breakdown. Even though this closed down nearly 4% today, if it comes in above 38.68 where the FTP is, it will look like a low risk entry using today's low as a stop. If it comes in lower than today's low, would wait to see what happens down at 36. Day to swing
ATPG**the 10 is just about to cross the 50 day moving average. Those numbers correspond at 17.24. In the last couple of weeks it has tried to rally and has been unable to get through 17.69 the high that was made on May 11. This does not have a big ATR, so if you're going to buy strength have to do it as a swing trade with 16.80 is underlying support. This is still trading underneath the 200 weekly moving average which comes in at 20.91 right now, a good first target. Swing
SSRI for those of you who rather buy a stock than an ETF this is silver standard resources. On a daily chart it held the 160 day exponential moving average and stopped just short of the 10 day moving average 28.21. Plus today it had an inside day similar to SLV. I would not consider going long should it break beneath 27.17. Otherwise, above 27.70 where the FTP is, can take a shot using today's low as a tight risk and if can get through 28.20, we could see a pop up to next resistance at 29.60 and possibly a move up to the 50 day moving average at 31. The 50 weekly moving average crossed above the 200 weekly moving average two weeks ago. Day to swing.
FSLR although this still has a lot of room on the downside, I'm posting this as my wild pick up the day. The tightest nearby risk is last week's low at 122.51. Otherwise, you got today's low at 123.80. After three days under the floor trader pivot would use the FTP to time my way in at 124.39. That makes the risk to today's low very manageable. I'm not looking for a huge move, somewhere around 127 is a good target for a day trade. Day trade only
Shorts: Most likely will watch the ultrashorts in the indexes once again.
Still looking at XLE and OIH since neither were able to get back through previous day low. In XLE, a move under 73 should bring in more selling with a tight risk using tomorrow's FTP at 73.45. OIH actually looks a little bit better with the exponential moving average at 144.57 and the floor trader pivot coming in tomorrow at 146.02. In fact, if it comes in and takes out R1, we could see a rally up to 150. Therefore, although I'm putting them on the short list, flexibility is important.