You know what kept us from going short?AAPL! Yup. That had an inside day and seeing as that and theRetail ETF (XRT) never broke those key previous day lows, we figured we rather miss the selloff and wait to see if those instruments were right on. And they were. But not putting on the bull hat just yet.NASDAQ did not have an accumulation day in volume. But S&P 500 (SPY) had its second one in a row.
S&P 500 (SPY)Over 133.25 don't fight it. Subs: That level takes out everything-the recent highs, 160 EMA, R1, 10 DMA
Russell 2000 (IWM) Subs:77.20 is the number here. Long at 75.80 and will see how that level holds before bailing and reversing
Dow (DIA) Subs: New slingshot pattern possible if can clear Tuesday high good confirm
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 63.05 and over good. But like all the indexes, still in a strong warning phase
ETFs:
GLD Hammer and hold of last week's lows. Been good for miniswing trades on long and short side last week. Now, time will tell
XLF (Financials) If you doubt the power of the 200 DMA, check out my article on my website. Would like to see 14.40 clear
IBB (Biotechnology) Confirmed bullish phase. Has to clear the fast moving average
SMH (Semiconductors)Subs: 31.60 the 200 DMA to clear. And possible slingshot to boot
XRT (Retail) 59.25 next hurdle although today's bullish engulfing pattern helps the case.
IYT (Transportation) 91.00 is where it broke down from. Now, has to clear it again. Wednesday high 90.89
IYR (Real Estate) Held a key monthly moving average. Overhead resistance, particularly at 63.00. But unless it breaks under recent lows, another good sector to watch.
XLE (Energy)Subs: Hanging onto the recent slingshot pattern and with some follow through, could see move up to the 200 DMA again
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Hangman candle in TLT followed by a hammer Wednesday. Furthermore, could not take out the all-time high. Subs: I am getting ready to go long TBT for swing. 124.52 high in TLT and slingshot
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move. Note:TRIP and SWI-2 featured picks this week now on new all-time highs.
Post Earnings: P the 200 DMA is 11.70. A gap over would mean watch for a 2 or 5 min OR breakout or a 30 minute opening range reversal
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
N/A
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which meanscandidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
COG Negative pivots but closed above them. 36.81 recent high has to clear on closing basis. 35.30 max risk
BBBY New risk 70.40. Looks poised for new highs if market does not collapse
ROST Good risk today's low and now a condition 1 if 10 DMA holds 61.20
CERN Back to condition 1. 10 DMA 78.90
GNC Has to close over 38.50
SWI OR reversal only
EQIX 157.80 the 10 DMA and another one back to condition 1
VVUS 23.66 the 10 DMA and back to condition 1
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN Not oversold but holding its gap higher. If 215 area holds and clears 218, looking better
WPI Condition 4 that is holding gap post earnings. 70 good close by risk must clear 71.35 the 10 DMA
Other: EWZnew slingshot pattern and clearer risk to last swing low 10/04/11.LGF (Not a condition) Should clear 12.80 firmly or will begin to look ominous
Slingshots: IBM Like to see R1 cross WYNNMax risk today's low LO Holding gap from 2/9. 124.54 max risk. Must clear R1 AAPL Inside day OXYPossible slingshot with return over the 200 weekly 81.11 good place to closeBIDU Positive Pivots. Needs to clear 122.40PNC Must Clear R1.XOM Clear R1 And make sure you watchX-since that needs to rally more for market confidence
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
GLD Cannot clear 152.68
APA Should not clear 83.71
NAV Must not clear 28.04
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Bear Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
CNQ Cannot clear 30.83 and actually overbought with negative pivots
Goodnight!
