This market can wear you out. This much I can tell you. The phase is strong warning. The number of stocks and ETFs that are in a bullish phase have decreased significantly. Bear phase stocks have already been beaten to a pulp. Volume is light and should get even lighter ahead of a long weekend in the US. And, reversal patterns on many instruments are for now, still intact.
S&P 500 (SPY)Actually eked out an accumulation day in volume!Subs: Tested and retreated from the 10 DMA. Remains beneath the 160 EMA. 129.55 number to hold. Pivots Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held the 200 DMA Subs: Still in channel. Like to see 75.29 hold and now 77.20 clear. Pivots positive
Dow (DIA) Could not muster a rally to the fast moving average. 126.20 and over would be most encouraging. Otherwise, could be a bear flag forming Subs:Pivots positive 124 support
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Unlike the others, did not get an accumulation day in price or volume-but at least no distribution day either Subs: 63.00 the 10 DMA 61.95 support positive pivots
ETFs:
GLD Back to short once it broke under 153.10. Never underestimate the phase
XLF (Financials) Holding the 200 DMA. Would like to see 14.40 clear
IBB (Biotechnology) Confirmed bullish phase. Now has to clear the fast moving average and hold 122.65
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside and narrow range day. Subs: 31.57 the 200 DMA and clears today's high. Pivots positive so otherwise, has to break S1 and today's low for fresh short signal
XRT (Retail) If holds Tuesday's low and breaks the highs, good sign
IYT (Transportation) 91.00 is where it broke down from. Now, has to clear it again. Tuesday high 90.50
IYR (Real Estate) Weak warning phase but if cannot get more upside, will accelerate in strength.
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.43 Friday low
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Hangman candle in TLT
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
N/A
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which meanscandidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
COG Confirmed phase change to accumulation. 36.81 recent high has to clear on closing basis. 35.10 max risk
RRC Confirmed to accumulation phase. Must hold today's low clear 64.75 to stick
BBBY 69.80 max risk
ROST Good risk today's low and now a condition 1 if 10 DMA holds
CERN 78.05 close risk
GNC Exception in that underperformed so max risk 36.36 and now like to see today's high clear to stick
SWI 44.90 max risk
TRIP Like to see 41.76 hold and recent highs clear
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
N/A
Other: LGF(Not a condition) 12.50 now risk
Slingshots with S1 or today's low max risk and positive pivots:CHKP WYNN PAY LO Holding gap from 2/9. 124.54 max risk. Must clear R1 AAPL 548.40 max risk
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
GLD Cannot clear 153.84
MOS Cannot clear 48.30
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Bear Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows Note: Quite a few so if see something not on list, please ask if need help
GG 34.50 has to break Cannot clear 36.37
OXY Should break S1. Cannot clear 81.40
APA Should break S1 not clear 84.00
APKT Should not clear 24.15 and must break S1
ATI Should not clear 35.73 and break S1
Goodnight!