Evening Watch List for May 25th

Mish Schneider | May 24, 2012

Good basing action in the market with anticipation that Friday, ahead of a holiday, could be quiet. The indexes are testing the fast moving averages. I would not be so bold to say the worst is over, but at least there are technical signals that will be clear to follow.

S&P 500 (SPY)Over 133.10 looks good Subs: That level takes out everything-the recent highs, 160 EMA, R1, 10 DMA. Positive pivots

Russell 2000 (IWM) Subs:77.10 is the number here.

Dow (DIA) Subs: New slingshot pattern possible if can clear 125.50 good confirm

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 62.95 and over good. But like all the indexes, still in a strong warning phase

ETFs: Subs: All Indexes and ETFs have positive pivots

XLF (Financials) Would like to see 14.40 clear

IBB (Biotechnology) cleared the fast moving average

SMH (Semiconductors)Subs: 31.60 the 200 DMA to clear. And possible slingshot to boot

XRT (Retail) 59.25 next hurdle with 58.65 now support

IYT (Transportation) Cleared 91.00 is where it broke down from. Now, 90.25 has to hold

IYR (Real Estate) Held a key monthly moving average. Overhead resistance, particularly at 63.00. But unless it breaks under recent lows, another good sector to watch.

XLE (Energy)Subs: Hanging onto the recent slingshot pattern and with some follow through, could see move up to the 200 DMA again

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT could not take out the all-time high and is now testing the fast moving average before calling this an all-out reversalSubs: Long TBT today with 17.40 first real overhead resistance if holds 16.25

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move. Note:EW BBBY featured picks this week now on new all-time highs.

Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

N/A

Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

N/A

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

P Provided 11.30 holds, will look for opening range reversal

ROST Good risk today's low and now a condition 1 if 10 DMA holds 61.30

CERN 10 DMA 78.95 and today's low max risk

GNC Great OR reversal buy today with close over the 10 DMA

SWI Feared a slingshot from the new high, but that did not happen. Could still see move to 50.00. Max risk for tomorrow today low

VVUS DOJI and hammer. Max risk 23.85

WPI 71.35 now support

TRIP Inside day. Today's low good risk

Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

AMZN Not oversold but holding its gap higher. Like to see 217.70 clear

Other: EWZMust clear 51.69 LGF (Not a condition) Return to unconfirmed bullish phase. Must hold 12.45 LO Now has to hold 126.75 FB Thru 33.60 could return to 38.00

Slingshots:IBM Like to see R1 cross WYNN Must hold 101.70 clear today's high. NFLX 69.27 max risk should clear 73.00 AAPL 558.65 max riskOXY closed on the 200 weekly and good one to follow over R1PNC Must Clear 62.70 XOM Has to clear 83.00.X-Like over 22.18

Shorts:

Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

APA Needs to break today's low and not clear today's high

NSC Cannot clear today's high

PPO Cannot clear 37.07

SNDK Cannot clear today's high

SLB Cannot clear 67.31

Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Bear Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows

APOL 2 inside days cannot clear 32.64

FCX Cannot clear 33.15

NAV Must not clear 28.37

Goodnight!