SPY Continues to hold the adaptive MA at 117.98. Directionless day with light volume which could be a sign of weariness of traders, vacation time before it's back to school or that interest is drying up in the current bear phase. There have been 6 Distribution Days in volume in the last 2 weeks and only 1 Accumulation day. Classically, unless we get another 3-4 good days of accumulation in volume with higher prices, the most we can say is that the market is still bearish and any dead cat bounce should be shorted. There are several stocks however that are hanging tough and close to or above all time highs like CF. This too is curious all things considered. Pivots positive coming in at 119.86.
DIA 114.25 is a big number to watch on a weekly closing basis. It was the close before the US was downgraded. Now, the MACD is crossing which is the best indication I can see for a possible rally from here considering this chart still looks the best as it remains in a Distribution Phase. Pivots Positive coming in at 114.37.
QQQ Barely holding the adaptive moving average at 53.60. Entered a Death Cross today. Negative pivots coming in at 53.67. At this point needs to clear R1 at 54.33 to get going again. Except for AAPL, many of the leading stocks have broken down. A rally from this point will most likely be led by the midcaps and S & P 500 stocks.
IWM 69.60 now must hold and with positive pivots, a cross over 70.57 could lead to a rally to 72.00, Hard to get too excited about a rally for anything more than a good daytrade and at most miniswing trade unless volume patterns return.
ETFs:
GLD Recommended reentering long over 170.75. Now, the recent high 175.13 could provide resistance, but overall, GLD strong uptrend intact.
SLV 38.90 now key support on the fast moving average.
IBB Once this broke under the FTP, it was a sign that this potential leader was out of gas. With negative pivots, now if cannot get back over 93.00 more weakness could be coming.
IYR MACD crossed and positive pivots at 56.58.
SMH 29.40 still pivotal, over 29.90 reverses trend to up and under 29.40 see 28.60 level next support.
IYT Weekly chart oversold. Over 83.65 could see a relief rally
OIH** Tested the 200 weekly moving average again. Over 135.15 could see more upside to 145 level.
TLT Another beautiful reversal. We know interest rates cannot go to zero, but at this point, the trend is too strong to fight.
Longs: As mentioned in video, the QQQ never took out R1 which was a big clue that the rally this morning was unsustainable in this bearish phase. Now, plan is to watch the 4 indexes and exercise extreme patience before any new trades. Only good OR reversals today were the ones with Positive pivots TLT SKF and HANS which had negative pivots but a good daily chart and a clear risk against prior day low. SUG gapped higher and followed through to the upside. Will track HANS and SUG CBS ED but list is some fresh ideas.
KCI* Inside day and still a good looking chart. Negative pivots so must hold 66.53 S1. Over today's high can see move to 69.85 area. Day to mini
AAPL Did clear R1 383.83 but never the 30 min Opening range. Positive pivots so will watch to buy weakness against S1 377.30 or if takes out 381 the FTP and holds depending on where it opens. Day to mini
WFM Monster rally crossing back over the 50 DMA at 61.23. Now if dips and holds the FTP at 61.46 or has an OR reversal, could see more rally to 64.00. Day to mini
POT Tried to get above the 50 DMA at 56.07 but backed away with market selloff. Now, positive pivots at 55.47 with tight risk to today's low 55.00. If can clear the 50 DMA has room to 58.00 Day to mini
TJX Near 52-week high. Positive pivots at 54.77 with risk to today's low 53.95. If gets going, all time high 56.78.Day to mini
PETM** Good earnings report. Trying to clear the 200 DMA and 160 EMA. Positive pivots at 41.74 which clears the 200 DMA, but 41.88 is the 160 EMA. Holding the 50 weekly moving average at 40.72 so on an OR reversal that is a good point to use a reference. Day to mini
SPG* Over the 50 DMA at 115.97. Positive pivots at 117.67. Another one to buy on weakness against today's low. Room to 123. Day to mini
CLB Inside day still looking strong with positive pivots at 111.32. Another to buy on OR reversal with potential to 117 area Day to mini
SLW 2 inside days. Positive pivots at 38.02. Still see move to 40 at least. Risk to today's low. Day to mini
Note- ISRG holding the 160 EMA with PP at 349.21. If sets up with low risk could see move to 360. JAZZnegative pivots but holding 10 DMA 37.63. Needs to clear R1 39.93.
Shorts:
HLF Failing the 70 EMA at 54.20 with an inside day. If rallies over 55.32 do not short. But, with negative pivots, under 54.67 and a break of today's low could see drop to 52 and if market remains weak, down to 42.00 Day to swing
RIMM ran to the 50 DMA at 28.07. Has negative pivots coming in at 26.75. Over the 50 DMA would not be short, but under the pivots could see a drop to 24.35 the 10 DMA. Day to mini
BIDU Now oversold, but negative pivots so if breaks 136.14, could risk to today's high. 130.45 underlying support. Day to mini
Goodnight!