SPY I keep hollering about volume. Today, volume was light. Plus, we could not get back over the 200 weekly moving average. The best we can say is that the low from Friday held. And now we have an inside day. Typically, we follow the way the range breaks long or short. Another area of resistance is the adaptive moving average at 117.66. Would like to be talking about that level as reality. Nothing goes down forever and we know rallies in bear markets can be vicious, but as of yet, see no signs of a blow off dump. Subs-keep watching for an OR high failure against the fast moving average now at 116.50
DIA Positive pivots tomorrow coming in at 108.90. If it opens above that level could have a low risk buy against today's low 108.01. But a break of the low and the 200 weekly moving average at 107.04. Over 111.30 would be a good close and perhaps, especially if there is volume, a reason to stay long.
QQQ Still lots of room to the 200 weekly moving average below. And now a bear flag forming on the weekly chart as well that breaks down under 49.99 with an inside day. Only a move and close above today's high 51.24 would negate that. Negative pivots at 50.50
IWM Broke and closed under the 200 weekly moving average again now at 65.47. Oversold on the weekly chart, and just about now on the daily as well. 63.76 recent low-still a bit away. Subs-Over today's high could see a bounce to 68.40 level. Otherwise, not the best one to short right now, but can still look for OR high failures especially against the FTP at 65.63.
ETFs:
GLD See no signs yet of a top and I am finding amusement and all of the people who keep trying to be the hero that calls one. Most recent long entry was at 170.75. Still long. Subs-stops on the older longs under 180 using a chandelier exit from today's high. Or under182.50 for newer longs.
SLV Friday saw the silver lining. Made its move closing the highest since 45-46 next target. 41.85 should now hold.
The ultrashorts SKF FAZ SDS TWM QID -buying dips and Opening Range reversals the way to go.
IYR Unless it crosses over 54.50, would still look to sell rallies. The 200 weekly moving average is 50.95.
USO** Doji day and came just shy of the adaptive moving average at 32.88. The open/close price is 32.72 which is now pivotal. The FTP which is positively stacked, comes in at 32.50. If that level holds and it takes out the adaptive, could see a move to the gap fill at 33.90. Otherwise, if fails the adaptive moving average and the pivots could look to short.
SMH**Inside day and positive pivots at 27.73. I am mentioning this because it is holding the 200 weekly moving average at 27.34, at least for now. Was also one that did not do the fake out cross over R1 stopping right at that area today. If clears R1 and today's high 28.03 will look to go long for a rally. Question will be how far? The adaptive moving average is at 29.46. Last week's high was 29.97. If we see a long setup, will most likely trail the stops up if this does indeed start to firm.
TLT** 2 Inside days and low volume. First time pivots are negative since 8/15. If it cannot get above 111.31 (R1) and fails the pivots at 110.85, could be time to check out the TBT. However, let's not forget that this is in a strong bullish phase so another day of a sell off and could be setting up for a new long.
UUP Possible double bottom at 20.84. A move over 21.30 will confirm.
Longs: CF the only ** pick long over the weekend gave us a great trade on the OR reversal. I am going to take this as a sign that for now, shortening the list to narrow the focus is a good thing. I am looking for near perfect setups-the pivots, slope of moving average, the RSI,etc.. Also I am still mainly watching the indexes and ETFs featured above.
HANS** Bought the OR reversal but got out with the weak close. In the aftermarket 81.00 bid. Beautiful trendline that breaks over 81.60 level on the weekly. Neutral pivots at 79.87. The 10 DMA, if it comes in higher is at 79.59, a good risk. Otherwise, watch for an OR reversal buy if gaps much higher. Target 86.00 Day to swing
VFC* Had an inverted hammer candle and today an inside day. Pivots neutral and the overhead 50 DMA still positively sloped. As long as it holds 104.20, and clears the FTP 105.57 and especially if it can clear R1 at 106.77, could go back up to 110. Since the weekly chart is still strong, can hang in there with a close over 110 for a swing trade. Day to swing
MA Inside day. With these giants I try to find the lowest risk possible. Last hour low 304.21. If it opens above the FTP at 305.25 (positively stacked) then can use the last hour low as a risk. Through today's high takes out R1 and could see 319.00 Day to mini
ED Over R1 54.81 takes out Friday's high. Needs to clear 55.21 to keep going with measured move to 57.00 Day to mini
ORLY ** Inside day and trading around the 50 DMA at 61.91 with positive pivots at 61.92. Provided it holds 61.40, would buy above the pivots and add over today's high 62.45 in anticipation of a move to 65.70 Day to mini
Hon Mentions CF-(would look for another OR reversal) ABT (if takes out today's; high) KCI (If holds 66.00 and above 57.00) SLW (If there is any testimony of how nervous we all are to hold longs, bought this Friday, and did a daytrade. Had I held and gone home with small loss, today was payday. Look for an OR reversal) SINA if does not fail the 50 weekly moving average 87.94, could start to see buyers)GOOG (if clears 503.85)
Shorts: All the shorts from Sunday's list worked really well.
ADSK Negative pivots at 24.42. Unless it crosses today's high, can short a failure of R1 and the pivots with next support 23.00 Day to mini
ARMH if can't clear R1 at 24.60 and breaks 24.15, has a bear flag forming after an inside day and next support at 22.10 then 18.00 Day to swing
DECK Inside day, under the 50 weekly moving average (but that is still sloping up). If cannot clear 76.25 with a risk to today's high, then can short with a tight risk. Under 72.78, last week's low, could see a drop to 71.00. A break of that area and would stay short for a swing. Day to swing
Hon Mention MOS if fails 63.50 or 62.25 AAPL BIDU IBM still above the 50 weekly moving averages, but look heavy on the daily charts
Goodnight!