SPY A couple of interesting aspects concerning today's rally. First is the accumulation day in volume, nice start. Second is the close over the 200 weekly moving average at 155.33. Third is the close over the fast moving average at 116.39. Next hurdle is the adaptive moving average at 117.65. We got long today but took off the lion's share of the profits leaving ourselves slightly long and not overexposed. I like to think in terms of pre and post downgrade. 120.08 was the close that infamous week. For now, trailing stops on new longs because one never knows, but still very respectful of the bear market and how big rallies can be deceptive. Subs-Positive Pivots at 115.20 for OR reversal possibility.
DIA Came in looking better with the good stack on the pivots and the hold of the 200 weekly moving average. Never quite had that death cross like the other 3 indexes had. Last night I wrote, "Over 111.30 would be a good close and perhaps, especially if there is volume, a reason to stay long. " There was and we are.
QQQ So much for the bear flag forming on the weekly, but still somewhat troubling as the sole index to not manage an accumulation day in volume nor close above the fast moving average at 52.28. The question is will this play catch up or was it an early signal to not get too heady about a further rally? The big gainers today were AAPL BIDU GOOG NFLX-perhaps QQQ will gap higher. 53.32 the adaptive moving average and next point of resistance. The infamous downgrade week area to close over is 53.83.Subs-positive pivots at 51.63
IWM Back above the 200 weekly moving average. Accumulation day in volume and could not clear the fast moving average at 68.28. Adaptive moving average at 69.65. Subs-Strategy for indexes- If gaps higher, would either look to set a 2 minute opening range fade/follow of wait a full 30 minutes and look for an OR reversal.
ETFs:
GLD Exited at 182.40 from the long at 170.75. Caught the move up and now will watch for a re entry. Typically I like to see 2 days under the FTP and then a cross over the FTP on Condition 1's before a new entry. Only 1 day under the FTP so far. Has not traded beneath he 10 DMA since early July. That comes in now at 175.54.
SLV Exited at 41.85 from 38.50 entry. The low last Thursday when it gapped higher and got exciting was 40.36. If that levels holds tomorrow, would consider an entry depending on how it opens. 41.82 now R1 and resistance.
USO Bought today and will trail up stops-looking to see what happens at 33.90 the gap fill area. Last week's high 34.63.
SMH Bought today and now watching the fast moving average at 28.79 with gap fill to 29.06 and adaptive moving average at 29.45. With the hold of the 200 weekly moving average and a good entry price, will trade it out for a swing, but with a no loss stop. Last week's high was 29.97.
IBB** Did fill the gap from last week with today's high 91.69. Using the pre downgrade barometer, has been outperforming the market this whole time. Volume low so would prefer to watch for an OR reversal rather than buy strength.
TLT** Critical area now as there are 2 days under the FTP and it is holding the low from last Thursday at 109.28, the day it gapped higher. If it crosses 109.98, have a low risk trade against Thursday's low. Still in a strong condition.
Longs: Today you could throw a dart at any of the picks and mentions and make money. The key was timing your way in. Please pay attention to the recommended timeframes-Day to swing. For example,HANS VFC CF are 3 that looked good for a swing-the rest of the recent picks have been more miniswing to daytrades. Please keep track of when you get .5 ATR and then 1.5 ATRs to lock in profits. And it is perfectly fine to keep a tail on for a swing, but then you must trail up those stops. Note-tonight's picks are selections in case there is more upside, with a low risk entry and possible strong follow through. All of the recent picks had best entry today and now need OR reversals before considering any new entry.
SINA* 2 inside days. Cleared the 200 DMA and R1. Positive sloping 50 DMA overhead at 101.59. Positive pivots at 95.20 so would like to see an OR reversal against that point. Stopped at the 160 EMA at 96.99 and has the 10 DMA at 97.34-so still overhead resistance. Would look to buy dips unless it breaks S1 at 93.50, then back under the 200 DMA and starts to look vulnerable again. Day to mini
SPG 113.46 is the 10 DMA and 112.43 the FTP-ballpark risk area. Has the 50 DMA overhead at 115.89 and a gap to fill at 116.64. Above the upward sloping 50 weekly moving average. Day to mini
JAZZ *Stopped at the 10 DMA at 37.71 with good looking weekly chart. Positive pivots at 36.32 and should not break 35.00 level. Would look to buy a dip but could also see a good run above the 10 DMA-just have a tighter risk. Target 41.50 area. Day to swing
BIIB*I tweeted the entry over the 30 minute OR high and the FTP, but not too late since it never got through R1, now at 92.53, which corresponds perfectly with the high of the recent resistance at 92.70. The FTP is at 89.94 which is negatively stacked so would not risk any lower than that. If this gets going has the 50 DMA overhead at 99.38 Day to mini
Hon Mention IBM WYNN (almost identical setup as SINA) CLB (Inside day-positive pivots-look at strength or weakness) BIDU (Risk less controllable but daytrade could look for a dip to buy near 133.63)FCX (Inside day-good over 43.05) YOKU (inside day-over 24.52 good)
Shorts: Not too many with negative pivots, but found these 2
SLG Downward sloping 50 DMA and negative pivots at 65.78. If it opens above R1 at 66.90 would be cautious about a short. Otherwise, good to short on weakness under the FTP. A break of today's low (inside day) and could see move to recent low 63.25 or lower. The 200 weekly is at 59.68 Day to swing
BTU Nearly oversold on weekly, but not yet and not oversold on daily. Hanging onto recent lows. Today it made a new recent low at 41.20 but bounced back with the market strength. Negative pivots at 42.33. Above R1 43.47 would not short. But if stays weak and under the pivots could see a move down to 40.00 then 38.00 Day to mini
Hon Mention- SKF financial ultrashort has support at 80.25 the 10 DMA. FAZ at 63.56
Goodnight!