SPY Can't argue with a good rally at the end of the day, but still cannot get overly excited since volume went back to anemic after an accumulation day yesterday. Plus, as the chart points out, it filled the gap. Now, it did close above the adaptive moving average. That suggests that the rally is still intact although weak and a break of S1 or 116.50 would be a significant blow to the market. In terms of pre and post downgrade. 120.08 was the close that infamous week. For now, trailing stops on new longs because one never knows, but still very respectful of the bear market and how big rallies can be deceptive.Subs-Positive Pivots at 117.42 for OR reversal possibility.
DIA Oopsie, today was the death cross. Pretty much the same as SPY, filled gap, over the adaptive moving average and low volume. Now back under 111.30 starts to look more vulnerable.
QQQ One day behind the others so today was the accumulation day in volume, but not that exciting since still well below the average volume. Only one that could not fill the gap to 53.02. Must hold above 52.00 or back to trouble. A move over the gap fill and could see 53.80 area, the close of the downgrade announcement week. Subs-positive pivots at 52.40
IWM At this point, over 70.00 is encouraging. Otherwise, like the others, filled gap, low volume and needs to hold today's low.
ETFs:
GLD Where did all the volume go? That's right-exiting gold. Distribution day and still in a bullish phase. Has lots of room for that to change. Before the last $15.00 move, the swing low was 167.77. May not get there so also watch for a return over R1 or 176.51 which also puts it back to a condition 1 if closes there or above. The ideal scenario would be some sideways action and then a low risk entry off of established support.
SLV Opened just below last Thursday's low at 40.36 and got slammed. But also still in a bullish phase. R1 40.10.
USO Exited with a basic scratch since there was no advantage of holding the long position. Has positive pivots and held the adaptive moving average so will look for a new entry over the FTP at 33.19. 33.90 the gap fill area. Last week's high 34.63.
SMH Watching the fast moving average at 28.81 with gap fill to 29.06 and adaptive moving average at 29.45. No loss stop on recent buy around 28.00.
IBB Gave you all the OR reversal buy on the dip we were waiting for. Next resistance at 94.44. Positive pivots that should hold at 91.47.
TLT Once it broke 109.28 bought TBT and took 1.5 ATRs out for a miniswing trade. Now, damage done to TLT but on light volume. Like GLD, will wait for some sideways action before considering a new long entry.
Longs: The new picks all worked well if were patient and bought the Opening Range Reversals. SPG JAZZ BIIB WYNN FCX YOKU IBM-all except SINA and BIDU. SINA was suspect since it had broken S1 and prior day low and BIDU never had one.
GMCR** Inside day and narrow range. Has gap to fill up to 96.95, which would also clear the 10 DMA at 95.50. Positive pivots at 92.76 to watch for an OR reversal. Otherwise, watch for an early (5 Minute) breakout over today's high 94.68 and either exit if it cannot cross over the 10 DMA or consider adding if it does. Day to Swing
BIIB* Opening Range reversal today. The 10 DMA at 90.34 which should hold. Positive Pivots at 91.29. Through 92.70 clears a lot of congestion. If this gets going has the 50 DMA overhead at 99.33Day to mini
BIDU** Still has positive pivots at 134.17. If breaks that level with a good risk, still see the gap fill as overhead resistance at 142.70. Today's low should hold if good. Day to swing
AMZN** Doji day with positive pivots at 193.40 and a good weekly chart. The 50 DMA overhead as resistance at 203.92. Day to swing
COG** Closed on the 10 DMA at 70.25. Has positive pivots at 69.80, now the area to hold. If gets going could see 76.30 area with all time high 78.94 Day to swing
Hon Mention: TZOO (Inside day, positive pivots, over 33.02 could see 38.00)
SINA (only if clears 96.71)
TPX (held the 200 DMA. Buy dip to 52.44 area. Pivots at 53.72)
CMG (Watch for OR reversal)
JAZZ (long on OR Reversal, if holds 36.50 see 41.50)
Shorts:
FXI** Inside day, negative pivots at 36.77. Since it crossed R1, now really needs to break S1 and today's low to stay short. Recent low 35.02 and could see 33.20 since not oversold day to swing
SLG Downward sloping 50 DMA and negative pivots at 65.76. If it opens above R1 at 67.13 would be cautious about a short. Otherwise, good to short on weakness under the FTP. A break of today's low and could see move to recent low 63.25 or lower. The 200 weekly is at 59.68 Day to swing
Hon Mention- RAX (under S1 or 33.14)
Goodnight!