Another big burst of volume in S&P 500 on a red day making this now the third distribution day in a week. But, oh what a tease, after testing the 50 DMA, closing right above it-just to keep us all interested. Late day earnings mixed and late day rumors of QE3 both add to the uncertainty.
S&P 500 (SPY) Bearish engulfing candle on big volume in a hanging on by a thread bull phase getting a bit oversold-piece of cake!
Russell 2000 (IWM) 77.34 puts this back over the 200 DMA with an oversold RSI.
Dow (DIA) Unconfirmed warning phase whilst it held the 200 DMA.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Same here with distribution day in volume and barely hanging onto the 50 DMA. With AAPL's poor earnings, afraid will have to sit this out now unless a miracle happens and it gaps above Tuesday's high. Subs: QID Over 33.95 clears the 50 DMA
ETFs:
GLD 152-154 recent range-looks like it might be ready to go higher should this level clear. Subs: Took a small long home
XLF (Financials) 14.11 the 200 DMASubs: 14.31 is R1 if can clear that could be a good reentry point long.
IBB (Biotechnology) Looking more like July might close out under 130, as a key reversal to its beautiful uptrend
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed under 30.50 which means lower likely. Subs: R1 corresponds with today's high and 30.50
XRT (Retail) Subs: 58.43 R1 with support at today's lows
IYR (Real Estate) 63.67 the 7/12 still holding Subs: Over today's high would take a shot on this-housing numbers coming out
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day and an outperformer of the market. Will watch the way the range breaks
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Looking more vulnerable now
XLE (Energy) Remember I wrote that a run to 69.00 would be a great short opportunity? Issue was, the gap yesterday made that a difficult entry.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Tomorrow is live coaching. Please feel free to ask questions. Plus, would be really helpful if the newer subscribers can share their experience -good, bad and neutral. Thanks
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ASML Inside day. Want to see 54.21 hold and clear R1 and today' high clear. All-time high 56.17.
FMC Reports 7/31. Has to hold 53.00 and like to see it clear today's high
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
DDD (Daytrade only Reports 7/26) If holds 34.05, could see run to highs
ESRX Closed under the pivots, but stack is slightly positive. 56.04 risk and like to see today's high clear
MON Inside day. Has to hold today's low, clear 85.15 then today's high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SHW Look for max risk 129.75 and closer one 130.28. Like this over R1 too 132.17
DG 52.05 now good risk. Want to see 53.02 clear
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
COST 93.11 max risk and would like to see 94.64 R1 clear
LO Has to hold today's low, clear the FTP at 135.75 then today's high
PM 86.40 is max risk, has to clear 87.71 then today's high
PCYC Max risk 48.75. Narrow range day. Needs to clear R1 50.08.
Phase Change: HD Range expansion and back to bullish phase. Must hold 50.75 and through 51.38 takes out last week's high JWNHas to hold 51.00 KSU DOJI outperformed positive pivots. Has to hold 68.69 clear today's high REXX 12.05 max risk on the 200 DMA-positive pivots want to see it clear 12.66 MOH positive pivots has to hold 26.25.JPM Provided 34.40 holds, positive pivots and unconfirmed phase change to recovery
Shorts: Have to wait for a rally into resistance as so many are oversold
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
SLW (on list last week)-never broke above the 50 DMA. Now cannot break above 25.90
Bye for now!
