More noise, more volatility, more market remains at a midpoint- in a warning phase, still vulnerable, yet with the longer term uptrend intact. Russell 2000 and Small Caps make the trip back to Distribution Phases.
S&P 500 (SPY)Held the fast moving average. No significant volume pattern. The indecision is exhausting. Subs: Positive NEUTRAL
Russell 2000 (IWM) I'm fairly sure this is showing the lead for more weakness. But, the market does not live or die by this index alone. Subs: Pivots Negative so would require a move back over today's high to undo the damage.
Dow (DIA) This looks like sideways consolidation while holding it its current warning phaseSubs: Pivots NEUTRAL
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)Consolidating and hanging onto the fast moving average.Subs: Pivots Positive. Look for R1 then 5/29 high or under 61.52 for break.
ETFs:
GLD 155.90 good area to hold. Subs: Positive Pivots
XLF (Financials) I sure would be happy to see a weekly close over 14.30 if 13.80 holds up.Subs: Still long
IBB (Biotechnology) It would take an awfully big move to convince me now that the top is in place for the intermediate term
SMH (Semiconductors) As nuts as this sounds, over 31.89 I would follow it up.
XRT (Retail) Broke the inside day range to the downside. Another sector that would have to make huge strides up to not look like a top.
IYR (Real Estate) 60.00 is support. Needs a close over the 50 DMA for any chance of a recovery
XLE (Energy) The last 5 trading days looks like kids sitting on a slide otherwise known here as the fast moving average. Either gravity will make it tumble, or a big wind will lift it airborne.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN Has to clear pivots at 215.15 which also clears the 10 DMA. Then use the OR low for risk if inline. R1 216.75.
AOL 26.95 max risk, like to see 27.13 clear then today's high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BIIB 133.18 risk for day to mini or 130.96 the 50 DMA for swing
CERN 79.33 good risk point after the DOJI day
TLT Should clear 126.67 the 10 DMA
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Confirmed Phase Change Distribution to Warning: KLAC Now needs to hold 47.10
Other: ULTA 90.88 gap low to hold. R1 93.64 has to clear. PPG Negative pivots but on the 50 DMA. If holds here would try again over R1 103.17
Shorts: I have given you a lot of shorts over the course of the last week, many I do not track daily but have worked real well. If in a position and unsure, please ask. REGN dropped 12.50%-that pays for many months of this service!
Slingshots Near highs now negative pivots: ROST Cannot clear 65.36 WFM Cannot clear 92.00
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
PX Since back to Distribution phase, should now not clear 105.72
COG Inside day. Cannot cross today's high nor 33.00 for tighter risk
COP Like to see 53.57 break and not clear 54.67
SHLD Should not clear 50.32
SLB Should not clear 65.20
WYNN Should not clear 101.67
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
INFY Should not clear 44.40 and like to see S1 break
Goodnight!