Good accumulation day in volume inS&P 500 and NASDAQ. So it's "Trader Who Lives in a Bubble" time. That means we know nothing of the world, only the charts. What do the charts say? The humongous red candle on June 11th-well, still in that range. Russell 2000-in the lower end of that range. Phase-strong warning. Inverted head and shoulders-still possible. The gap higher on June 6th, holding. In other words, other than the fun of being in the world and not in a bubble, not much has changed since the week began other than time has passed.
S&P 500 (SPY)Over 133.55 hard not to follow. Subs: Positive Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day and hovering on the 200 DMA. In other words, go here for weakness should the market falter. Subs: Pivots Positive. Watch today's low and highs.
Dow (DIA) Let's call 125.90 area pivotal-weak below, strong above Subs: Pivots positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)Consolidating and hanging onto the fast moving average. Under 61.80 with weakness in AAPL and AMZN suspect. Over 63.15 a relief. Subs: Pivots Negative 62.75 R1 first place to clear
ETFs:
GLD Sure looks like it wants to rally from here. Subs: Positive Pivots
XLF (Financials) I would be even happier now to see a weekly close over 14.30 if 13.80 holds up.Subs: Still long
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside that same big red candle from 6/11
SMH (Semiconductors) Down today in a huge up one. Hmmmm. Semis-love when they join the party.
XRT (Retail) Inside day. Typically good to follow up or down on range break.
IYT (Transportation) Over 91.92 looks interesting again
IYR (Real Estate) On the 50 DMA-but won't confirm bullish phase unless closes above for 2 days
OIH (Oil Services) Kind of impressive now how many times 34.50 has held recently
XLE (Energy) Remember my 5 kids on a slide? Or was it a seesaw?
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
QCOR 44.12 max swing risk, 45.35 mini risk. Has to clear 45.52 then today's high
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN 5 days under pivots but still a condition stock. Now, has to break over R1 216.41 and hold the FTP if it does 214.48
TRIP Has to hold 43.40 and clear 44.83
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ALXN Inside day. Over highs of last 3 days, should follow. Risk 91.75
SWI Back to condition 3. Over 44.17 should continue and hold 43.30
BIIB Reversal only
CERN Reversal safer
ULTA Inside day. Has to hold today's low and clear 93.93
EQIX Ok over 171.15 since could power to new highs
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Other: Unconfirmed Phase Change: COFConsolidating-over 53.30 looks good risk 52.19 INTUOver 57.70 with risk 57.00 MMM Over 86.75 Risk 86.25 HOT Has to hold 49.95 PPG Narrow Range Day. Negative pivots but on the 50 DMA. If holds here would try again over R1 102.59
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
PX Should now not clear 105.32
WYNN Should not clear 101.65
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
INFY Should not clear 44.66 and like to see S1 break
EWZ Should not clear 52.21 and like to see it break today's lows
TCK Should not clear 32.16 and break today's low
Goodnight!