Maybe over the long haul the "twist" will do something good for the US economy. Maybe the best thing is that the FED stood aside allowing the market to sell off sharply on its own volition. Maybe the selloff in energy and overall commodities will help lower costs. In the meantime, stock holders run for the exits while the DOW is yet to test August lows.
Note-Our hedge fund was up 8% in Q3 while S & P was down 14%. Mentioning more as a reason that learning to trade or at the very least, understanding what the "professionals" are doing with your money is the best education.
SPY Third time since August lows this closed under the 200 weekly moving average. We did hold the 200 monthly moving average Friday with low volume all last week and one accumulation day, no distribution days. That is one reason to use caution right here for new shorts. Subs- R1 at 114.71 which brings it back over the 200 weekly MA.
DIA Not at the 200 weekly moving average yet so still a good one to watch for any signs of a rally. Subs-110.43 R1
QQQ Last week I wrote when giants fall they fall hard. And hard they did indeed fall. Now, AAPL AMZN in particular, are oversold. 52.00 still some underlying support. The index itself is not oversold which means under 52.00 next support 50.00.
IWM 65.20 the 200 weekly moving average support broke. Now resistance with next support 56.50.
ETFs:
GLD 155.20 the 160 EMA which held. Under see the eventual test of the 200 DMA at 149. Has to clear 165 to show any signs of a base.
IYR (Real Estate) Landed right on the 200 weekly moving average with still a way to go to the August low. If any chance of rally, must clear 52.00.
IBB** (Biotechnology) Featured on chart since had an inside day and outperformed the market. In a bear phase so more looking at a short opportunity than long right now, but if market firms at all, this one be a good one to watch.
TLT (The 20 year Treasuries) soared last week. Note: a featured pick last Wednesday. A bit of a question since on how much further it can go since still working a double top with 2008 highs.
Longs: Very cautious still on long side for longer term trades. Best setups I could find because of clear risk. Trying to stick with the indexes right now as best indication.
FDO Held the 200 DMA at 50.60 so clear risk. Also holding the 50 weekly moving average. Risk is so key on anything with this setup. If holds the 200 DMA and crosses over the slightly negative FTP at 51.18, might consider ½ position. Has to clear R1 51.76 to add or stay with 53.00 first overhead resistance. Day to mini
AMT Inside Day Neutral Pivots at 53.66 so good first are to hold. Over R1 54.27 also clears the 10 DMA so good one for possible bounce to 55.75 area. Day to mini
GR Been consolidating since the gap higher with now 5 days under the FTP. But, would not risk more than to the FTP at 120.89 and buy only if clears R1 at 121.08. Recent high 122.33 looking for no more than 125 if clears for now. Day to mini
KMB* Positive stack of pivots at 71.20 with this environment, would like to see hold especially if buying on OR reversal. Must clear 71.78 recent high but has good potential to run to 76.00 area. Day to swing
TZOO (Note-not classic) But held the 200 weekly moving average to the tic at 21.41with Friday low 21.24 the ultimate risk. If clears R1 and Friday high 23.00, could see 25.30 the 10 DMA and perhaps 30.00. Day to mini
ED Positive pivots at 57.25 with good risk to Friday's low 57.00. If can hold and get back through 57.50, could see a move to 58.79 recent high and perhaps 60.00. Day to mini
Honorable Mention: CHRW (Must clear R1 69.24) ORLY (Through R1 67.82) CBST (Through 35.82 Inside day) CL (Inside day must clear 90.25)
Shorts: Ultrashorts especially on reversals still in play
SQM Not quite oversold and negative stack of pivots at 48.19. Prefer to sell an OR high failure but would consider a short OR breakdown as well. Target the 200 weekly at 38.75 Day to swing
VRX Similar setup as SQM with 200 weekly at 29.75 and negative pivot at 37.12. In this case, R1 lines up perfectly with Friday high so if looking for a short covering rally, this could also work out. Day to mini
VRSN Not oversold and negative pivots at 28.71. Would like to see it stay below the pivot for the short since the 10 DMA is at 29.70. The 200 weekly is 23.72. Day to swing
RHT failed the 200 DMA at 43.00 and now has negative pivots at 42.72 therefore clear risk. Also under the 50 weekly moving average at 43.14. Some support at the 160 EMA at 41.37 and then the 50 DMA at 39.11. Major support at 32.00. Day to swing
Honorable Mention: OR high failures: BIIB (against 94.35) GOOG
Have a great Sunday!
