SPY In the last 2 weeks since my vacation, there have been 3 accumulation days and 2 distribution days in volume. One of the distribution days was Friday, the only day of the last 2 weeks that beat the daily average. The volume slightly favors the buyers but technically, hurdles prevail. The RSI is also at an interesting place, neither overbought nor oversold-leaving room either way. There is still a gap to fill to 120.34. Subs-With negative pivots, SPY must now cross R1 at 117.62. It must hold 114.90.
DIA Gap to fill to 113.38. R1 111.32
QQQ Today an accumulation day in volume. Through R1 54.32 could see 55.50 area which would retest the 50 weekly moving average as well as the 50 DMA. Pivots are neutral, which means a hold of 53.40, and watch the leading stocks to do just that, try to lead.
IWM Also an Accumulation day in volume. The chart is still negative by all means, but since early August, a trading range has been established between 64.50 and 74.00. The really patient could wait for the range to break before establishing any longer term position. For now, anticipation is for a test of the top of the range. R1 is 68.78.
ETFs:
GLD Trend still intact, with closest support at 175. But overall, still in a wide trading range 170-186. Through 177 could see a quick bump to 179.17-a gap fill. Otherwise, under last week's low 174.45, look for a test of 170 and the RSI to turn to oversold before any new long entries.
SLV Tested and held the 50 DMA at 38.72 with today's low 38.65. If that area continues to hold, could get interesting but for now, sloppy chart and aside.
SMH**Watched this outperform the market all day before a good rally at day's end with a not so strong bullish engulfing pattern since the volume was lighter than Friday's. Has positive pivots and needs to clear 29.14 today and Friday's high. If it gaps higher, would watch for an opening range breakout confirm with next target 30.65 then 32.00. Since the gap higher on September 7th, the gap has held. Would love to see the semiconductors lead. Like IWM, in a wide range, but once it busts above or below see the next big move to follow.
IYT The weak link that now has to cross above 79.45 to get going to the highs from 2 weeks ago.
XRT Never had the death cross along with the other leading sectors and groups. Positive pivots to hold now at 43.40 to stay strong.
Longs:
ORLY Condition 1 with 3 days under the FTP at 66.85. Risk to today's low 66.21. Last week made a high of 68.49. Has a measured move to 72.00 Day to mini
WYNN Support now at 150 area with positive pivots at 151.28. Through 155 could see move to 165 level Day to swing
RRC Condition 2 with 3 days under the FTP at 62.23. Risk for swing 60.65. Miniswing 61.32. Above the DMA 64.25 could see move to 67.33 all time high with measured move to 78.00. Day to swing
ISRG Condition2 with 3 days under the FTP at 369.22. The 10 DMA now minor resistance at 377.35. Then, next resistance at 397.00 Day to swing
TSO Condition 1 with 2 days under the FTP at 23.60. Major support down to 22.00 with a move over R1 24.22 could see run to 25.79 then multiyear high28.74. day to swing
Hon Mention: SINA (over 108.81) AMZN (dip to 213.65 or above 219.32) GMCR (dip to 107.89 or over 111.42) COG (OS, needs to hold 70.20 could see 74.25) JAZZ (dip to 42.38) DECK (dip to 90.70) LULU (through 56.70) UA (dip to 68.37) BIDU (through 145.05)
Shorts:
SOHU under 73.00 S1 although must break last week's low 72.62. Then could see drop to 65.00. Risk no more than 75.90. Day to mini
WTW under 55.50 takes out recent consolidation and could drop to 37.82 area, the 200 weekly moving average. Over 57.78 would not short. Day to swing
VMC Over 32.82 would not short. Under the negative pivots 32.00, especially if breaks S1 31.50 could see recent low 28.89 and possibly down to 20.00. Weekly chart very heavy. Day to swing
Goodnight!