January 26, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
S&P 500 has the longest winning streak since 2004; 1st close above 1500 since December 2007. These are the type of lofty headlines that make traders very happy (if their P & L is in line with the market), very worried (when will the party end?) and very baffled (why is AAPL not involved?) But, as a phase follower, since 2013 began, the phase has accelerated bullish in all but NASDAQ, which remains in an accumulation phase but on the verge of a golden cross. Tops are typically made one of four ways: Blow off rally with huge volume, slingshot patterns, Island tops or, 2 or more tops made at resistance areas. The market will tell you. Do not let the emotional nemesis of "hope, fear and greed" rule your world.
*Monday: The December durable goods report will be released at 8:30 a.m. EST. At 10:00 a.m. EST, the December pending home sales report comes out.
S&P 500 (SPY) Good volume but still not blow off rally volume. A high 2-day RSI but still ok longer term
Russell 2000 (IWM) Poked its head out over the weekly Bollinger Band and got to the top of a monthly one. Best news is that this is still not overbought. Friday's low will be closely watched.
Dow (DIA) Up to Bollinger bands in both the weekly and monthly charts. Curious about the low volume all around.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.34, a pivotal number, which it tried hard to test but failed to penetrate shall remain elusive until it's not. Inside day Friday. 66.17 is the gap low for the year to hold
ETFs:
GLD Unconfirmed distribution phase. Friday high is where the 200 DMA is and recent low158.39 represents an important point to hold.
XLF (Financials) Inside day to end the week with no real concerns
IBB (Biotechnology) Still underperforming relative to the other sectors, but had a good day Friday.
SMH (Semiconductors) Friday's low is important and still has some catching up to do if this is good
XRT (Retail) Still overbought but only on a 2-day basis-not a weekly or monthly one
IYT (Transportation) DOJI and hammer candle to end the week. Even if this sells off from here, I still am quite satisfied with the profits we keep looking at and those which we have already taken
IYR (Real Estate) 68.26 the 2012 high. Got real close on Friday
USO (US Oil Fund) Resistance at 35.00. If good, should clear. If not, still longer term trend is negative
OIH (Oil Services) 43.80 is an important monthly moving average
XLE (Energy) 77.35 the 2012 high.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Like to see Friday low hold
DVY (Select Dividend Index) 65.00 decent target
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
