March 31, 2026
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Markets Are Starting to Align
Today’s price action brings together several themes we’ve been discussing in recent videos.
On the surface, this looks constructive.
But the key question remains:
Is this a durable bottom or a temporary bounce?
Bonds First, Then Equities
The rally in bonds is an important starting point.
Falling yields often:
That shift is now beginning to show up in equities.
Then, Granddad Russell Steps Up
Small caps, represented by IWM, have now:
This is significant because small caps are closely tied to:
Their strength suggests that markets are at least attempting a recovery phase.
Video:
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Granny Retail Joins the Move
Granny Retail XRT is also participating.
After showing relative weakness, retail is now:
This alignment matters.
For a sustainable rally:
➡ The consumer must participate
➡ Retail must stabilize and improve
Bottoming Patterns Are Emerging
Across multiple sectors and instruments, we are now seeing:
These align with the framework we recently discussed:
➡ New lows followed by strong reversals
➡ Increasing volume
➡ Defined risk levels
The setups are there.
But Is It Real?
This is where discipline matters.
Not all bottoms hold.
For confirmation, markets need:
Without that, rallies can quickly fade.
The Actionable Framework
Here’s how to approach it:
In other words:
➡ Don’t anticipate the bottom
➡ Let the market confirm it
Bottom Line
The ingredients for a bottom are forming:
But confirmation is still required.
Because in markets —
the first move is the attempt… the second move is the truth.
Note that this is different than our other YouTube channel featuring the Economic Modern Family.
That is for financial literacy.
Mish’s Daily of Mish’s Market Minute on the MarketGauge YouTube channel under “shorts” is meant for the more serious self-directed investor.
They do, however, overlap.
PLEASE, go to our YouTube Channel, watch the content we have shared to date.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
March 27 Yahoo Finance Trading Disparate Market Signals
Coming Up:
April 1 NYSETV
April 2 Financial Compass
April 10 FintechTV
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) Classic reversal if holds 645
Russell 2000 (IWM) Classic reversal if holds 242
Dow (DIA) Classic reversal if holds 455
Nasdaq (QQQ) Classic reversal if holds 560
Regional banks (KRE) 64 key number to hold
Semiconductors (SMH) 380 a good place for this to hold if good
Transportation (IYT) 73 now support
Biotechnology (IBB) 164 now support
Retail (XRT) Triple bottoms off of June and November 2025, and March 2026 lows?
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 68k now pivotal
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
