October 19, 2016
By Mish Schneider
Outside, perhaps we do see a double rainbow (yesterday’s commentary).
Inside, though, a solar powered glow-in-the-dark Rallysaurus has resurrected.
On September 25th, nearly a month ago I asked, “Have sustainable or renewable energy instruments finally bottomed?”
Today, First Solar’s price rose by over 6%. SunPower and Canadian Solar gained over 4% each. TAN, the Solar Energy ETF, posted a nearly 2% increase.
And that’s not all. NASDAQ 100 confirmed the improvement to a bullish phase. Regional Banks (KRE) confirmed as well-with gusto!
Whereas we counted on the Semiconductor sector along with Transportation and Regional Banks to come to Granny Retail’s aid, with the help of only 2 of the 3, she left the infirmary mainly on her own.
Furthermore, the metals, particularly the miners, shone.
Turns out the advice that “if you (bulls) don’t like the weather, wait 15 minutes” worked out well.
Yet, if that remains the wise market addage, will today’s rally sustain for another 15 minutes?
The Modern Family has proven time and time again, that it’s only as strong as its weakest member.
IBB’s softness, which many attribute to comments about big pharma price gouging, held the critical support but closed red. Resistance at the 200 DMA or 275 looms.
Considering Biotech is heavily speculated, not a deal breaker, but definitely a factor for the low volume rallies in the indices. Spec money continues to sit on the sidelines.
Encouraging though, is that Retail (XRT) after its fascinating railroad tracks pattern under all its moving averages, reconciled up, closing just shy of the 200 DMA at 43.25.
With the paradox between IBB’s fraility and XRT’s rehabiliatation, the forecast for tomorrow is sunny with a chance of rain. Should XRT rally more and IBB join in, our Rallysaurus could attach a body to its corkscrew spine.
On the other hand, if IBB fails 264 and XRT heads back into the infirmary, get out your umbrellas.
By the way, should our Rallysaurus fail to find a body to attach to that corkscrew spine, it serves as an excellent bottle opener.
S&P 500 (SPY): 214 pivotal 216 resistance 212 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 120 pivotal with 122 good place to clear/close above
Dow (DIA) 181.50 area support 182.50 resistance to clear
Nasdaq (QQQ) 117.40 pivotal 50 DMA
KRE (Regional Banks) 42.10 underlying support. 43.50 resistance
SMH (Semiconductors) Has to clear back over the fast moving average at 68.40 and hold 66.70
IYT (Transportation) Inside day. Can go either way here
IBB (Biotechnology) 264 key weekly moving average
XRT (Retail) Possible reversal pattern under the 200 DMA
IYR (Real Estate) Confirmed over the 20 DMA making 78.00 pivotal
GLD (Gold Trust) Never thought the trend changed-now if this is the start of a new leg up, 120.50 area should hold
SLV (Silver) Could see this get back to 17.50
GDX (Gold Miners) Should now hold around 24.55
USO (US Oil Fund) Couldn’t quite clear recent highs today. 11.50 pivotal near term
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Over 21 better
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 131 support 133.10 resistance
UUP (Dollar Bull) Looks higher still
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