May 13, 2024
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I have not been shy about telling our readers and social media/media followers that we liked and bought Alibaba (BABA) in February 2024.
And we sat with it.
And sat with it.
Today, it’s paying us some cushy profits.
Will it last?
BABA reports earnings before the opening bell tomorrow.
Alibaba split the business into six business divisions to avoid regulatory scrutiny in China.
Alibaba has repurchased $12.5 billion worth of shares.
For fiscal 2024, Alibaba’s EPS is estimated to be $8.63 vs. year-ago $7.64 on a 7.1% Y/Y growth in revenues to $130.2 billion.
Analysts say that BABA stock has a conservative upside potential of 30% upside.
Furthermore, the dividends and buybacks alone will return 4% annually for the next three years.
However, the monthly chart has its own story to tell.
The monthly chart is one of my favorites to look at, especially when one draws in the 23- and 80-month moving averages.
BABA ran right to the 23-month MA ahead of the earnings report.
What could that mean?
If the price clears, then we will assume that the stock has more room to run with a now 2-year business cycle expansion.
If the stock does indeed gap higher, then we are looking for a move to around $100.
If the stock comes in lower, we will use a support level of $77-80 to gauge the company’s health.
If the stock opens and trades between Monday’s range of $82.60-$85, we will watch Monday’s lows to hold.
If it takes a day or 2 to consolidate these gains, then we will still watch that key moving average.
Fundamentals shift according to price-and this chart is a great place to go for that.
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Please check out the interview Mish did this morning on Cheddar TV’s Opening Bell!
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
Cheddar TV Opening Bell Mish helps get viewers prepared for CPI, stagflation, earnings and trade war implications 05-13-24
Making Money With Charles Payne Mish and Charles discuss transportation index and Fed policy mistakes-plus a few picks 05-09-24
CMC Markets Mish highlights the pivotal levels and support/resistance zones for a selection of key markets 05-08-24
Business First AM Mish covers 3 top areas to watch and gives a stock pick up over 10% today! 05-06-24
Stockpick.app Weekly video Mish covers the economic modern family, natural gas and gold 05-06-24
Financial Sense with Jim Pupluva Mish and Jim talk about the cost of AI on the already short supply of many raw materials 05-04-24
Benzinga Market Prep Mish is there for the jobs report and gives you an action plan Starts at minute 27:49 05-03-24
Real Vision The Daily Briefing Maggie Lake and Mish discuss inflation, stagflation, May seasonal, stock picks and much more 04-30-24
BFM 89.9 Malaysia THE MAGNIFICENT 7 ARE NOW THE FANTASTIC FOUR Mish tells us how much of a divergence are we seeing in terms of performance and why these results still matter in spite of the Fed keeping pat on rates. 04-26-24
FOREX ANALYTIC Mish sees opportunities in commodities amid concerns over stagflation 04-25-24
Coming Up:
May 14 Final Bar with Dave Keller
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 512 key support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 200 key support
Dow (DIA) 387 support and 400 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) 437 key support
Regional banks (KRE) Through 50.50 compelling
Semiconductors (SMH) 220 key support
Transportation (IYT) 64 support 67 resistance -still relatively weak
Biotechnology (IBB) If cannot clear 135 could see return to 130
Retail (XRT) 75 now key support-thank you Gamestop and AMC for helping an old lady party
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Fair warning as this confirmed below the 50-DMA
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